Welcome to The Clark & Addison Chronicle’s opening day diary. Read from the bottom of the post up.
3:43pm Final: Cubs win 15-2. What a day!
3:05pm End7th: Juan Cruz looks like the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez (aka K-Rod) right now. 6 straight strikeouts.
2:55pm Top7th: It’s now 15-2. The Mets outfield defense has lived up to its poor expectations. According to Chip, the Cubs’ 15 runs ties an opening day franchise record.
2:30pm Top6th: Let’s just call him Mr. April. After starting off the season great last year, Corey Patterson is doing the same this year. A three-run homer gave him 5 RBI’s on the day and put the Cubs up by 8. . . . After Damian Miller grounded out to short following Patterson’s homer, Mo Vaughn went little league and threw the ball into leftfield trying to throw the ball around-the-horn. . . . With an 8-run lead, Baker pinch-hit for Wood with Lenny Harris. Probably the smart thing. Juan Cruz is coming on in relief.
2:15pm End5th: Kerry Wood has continued to struggle with the location on his fastball, yet is seemingly throwing every breaking ball for a strike. The Mets, thankfully, have failed to take advantage of his fastball troubles, except for 2 runs in the second. Wood has thrown 88 pitches now, though. It seems unlikely that he’ll pitch more than one more inning. High pitch counts is a problem he’s had throughout his career, making it hard for him to go deep into games. Unlike last year, though, the Cubs’ bullpen should be able to hold the lead.
2:05pm Top5th: Grudzielanek is now 3-for-3 with a walk. As a poster at The Cub Reporterwrites, “Grudz is on pace to be the best lead-off Cub of all time.”
2:00pm Top5th: I really like Steve Stone and am glad he’s back broadcasting. But he just said something indefensible. He said that the Red Sox are going with a closer-by-committee this year (which isn’t really what they’re doing, but that’s another point) and as a result they’ll finish 10-15 games behind the Yankees. How in the world is trying to use your best relief pitchers in situations other than when your team is up by 3 in the 9th going to cause you to finish so far back of first place?
1:36pm Top4th: With two outs in the 4th and two runners on, and after having thrown 90 pitches, Art Howe pulled Tom Glavine. While Glavine certainly didn’t have his best stuff today, credit the Cub hitters for laying off Glavine’s outside off-speed pitches, drawing 4 walks to go along with their 8 hits.
1:15pm Top3rd: Well, we’ve already witnessed one difference between Baker and Don Baylor. Choi led off the inning with a double. Such an event would have put Baylor into bunt mode, giving up an out to move the runner to third. Baker let Bellhorn swing away. Though Bellhorn didn’t drive him in, Patterson did.
1:00pm Mid2nd: Glavine threw 31 more pitches in the 2nd inning, moving him up to 65 already for the game. . . . The first two hitters in the Cubs lineup – Grudzielanek and Gonzalez – are a combined 2-for-2 with 2 walks. If we assume that they are both .300 OBP% players, the probability of them getting on base 4 times in 4 plate appearances is less than 1% (.81%). Of course, low probability of things happening certainly doesn’t prevent them from actually happening.
12:40pm End1st: Early signs on Kerry Wood: The location on his fastball wasn’t great in the first inning, but his hook looked great. When he’s able to throw that for strikes, he’s tough to score off of.
12:30pm Mid1st: Glavine threw 34 pitches in the first inning. The Cubs should get to the Mets bullpen early.
12:17pm Top1st: A lot of people have mentioned the defensive problems the Mets are likely to have this year. Those problems evidenced themselves with the second batter of the game. Ty Wigginton couldn’t stop a hard grounder hit by Alex Gonzalez, and then no one covered second, allowing Gonzalez to take the base. Sammy Sosa took advantage of the RBI opportunity. We couldn’t ask for a better start.
12:08pm:Mike Piazza is playing today, but likely won’t play the rest of the series, as his suspension will start after the game.
11:50am Opening Thoughts: The weather in New York is sunny but cold, in the lower 40s. . . . The lineup is slightly different than what Mike Kileyreported it would be. Mark Bellhorn is hitting 6th, while Corey Patterson is hitting 7th, instead of the other way around. . . . Despite my displeasure of the Bobby Hill situation, I admire Dusty Baker for starting Hee Seop Choi in this game despite the Mets starting a lefthander (Tom Glavine). I’m sure Eric Karros will see a lot of time against lefties this year, but Choi is the future, has demonstrated an ability to hit lefties, and deserves to be in the opening day lineup. . . . Both ESPN and FSN Chicago are broadcasting the Cubs game today. I’ll be watching FSN so I can hear what Chip and Steve have to say throughout the game.
The Cubs open the 2003 season on Monday at 12:10pm central time against the Mets. Brian Carstens has already indicated that he is going to take the day off from work for the occasion. Really, it’s the only proper decision. I will be taking the day off from classes (for those that don’t know, I am currently in my third year of law school).
Actually, that should just be class, as I only have one on Monday’s. So my sacrifice really isn’t that great.
In any case, I’m doing it all for you, the reader of The Clark & Addison Chronicle. On Monday, I will be running a diary of the Cubs’ opening day. Don’t expect anything near as funny as “The Sports Guy” on ESPN.com’s Page 2, but hopefully it will be worth reading. So check back then.
Mike Kiley reports what the opening day lineup will look like:
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Alex Gonzalez
RF Sammy Sosa
LF Moises Alou
1B Hee Seop Choi
CF Corey Patterson
3B Mark Bellhorn
C Damian Miller
P Kerry Wood
As I noted on Wednesday, the first two batters in the lineup are projected to put up poor on-base-percentages, stemming from their history and their age.
Here’s what Dusty Baker had to say about putting a poor on-base guy (Grudzielanek) at the top of the lineup:
“There have been a lot of guys batting leadoff who weren’t true leadoff hitters. There are probably only a handful of real good leadoff men in the game. Sure, you want a guy that walks, that steals, that has a high on-base percentage. But some guys’ on-base percentage is what they hit. I hope they hit .350.
So we’re left hoping that Grudzielanek hits .350.
For what it’s worth, given the above starters, I’d hit Bellhorn and Choi 1-2 in the lineup. I don’t expect to see that anytime soon, though.
In other news, as expected Alan Benes and Rod Beck were sent to Iowa, and Charles Gipson to minor league camp.
Bill James participated in an online chat at USAToday.com on Wednesday. One person asked him his take on Ryne Sandberg’s not being elected to the Hall-of-Fame in the last election. James wrote:
He’s obviously a better second baseman than several of the guys in there. Fifteen years ago the Hall of Fame was short of second basemen, but in the last 15 years they have been electing second basemen by the bargeload. Its pretty silly to say that Red Schoendienst was a better player than Ryne Sandberg.
Now that the previously supposed leadoff hitter for this season Bobby Hill has been sent to Iowa, Mark Grudzielanek, who probably takes Hill’s spot at second base, may also hit leadoff. Here’s GM Jim Hendry on the subject:
“That’s up to Dusty. It’s getting to be a hard thing to find, that natural true leadoff hitter. I think Dusty will probably mix and match. (Alex) Gonzalez hitting second seems a good fit. Grudzielanek is a pretty good hitter career-wise, it’s possible (he’ll leadoff) and hopefully it’ll work out.”
I really hope Hendry is just being nice with that “Grudzielanek is a pretty good hitter career-wise” comment. Grudzielanek has had only one season in which he’s posted a league average OPS and that was four years ago. His career OPS is 6.5% below league average. Not terrible for a middle infielder, especially if you make him your back-up, but certainly not “pretty good.”
With Grudzielanek hitting leadoff and Alex Gonzalez hitting second, Baseball Prospectus projects the two hitters setting the table for Sosa, Alou, and Choi this year to have on-base-percentages of .292 and .304, respectively. Ouch.
Just as the Sun-Timesreported this morning would happen, the Cubs announced in a press release today that Bobby Hill has been sent to Iowa. Though I do think the Cubs are misguided in this decision, and employing a double standard with regard to the emphasis on the spring training performances of Hill and Mark Grudzielanek and Ramon Martinez, I also think that Bobby Hill will be back with the big league club soon.
The Cubs also cut IF Augie Ojeda, LHP Mike Sirotka, OF Midre Cummings, OF Trenidad Hubbard, C Javier Cardona, RHP Francis Beltran, and LHP Felix Sanchez. With Ojeda, Cummings, and Hubbard gone, that almost assuredly means Tom Goodwin and Lenny Harris have made the team, as Mike Kiley said they would, though Charles Gipson is still in camp and has to be considered a possibility. Gipson, though, has received less playing time this spring than either Goodwin or Harris.
UPDATE (4:50pm):Brian Carstenshas comments, astutely noting that “[i]t is clear at this point that Mark Grudzielanek cannot hit, while Bobby Hill merely has not hit.”
UPDATE II (5:05pm): GM Jim Hendrycomments on the move: “More went into it than, ‘Gee, he hit this batting average and that’s not good.’ He didn’t play as well defensively as he did last year, he didn’t run the bases as well, but he’s done it before. He’s got a chance to be a real good ballplayer. We’re not down on him or writing him off or feeling he won’t be a good player for a long time. But at the same time, it won’t do him or ourselves any good right now to put him out there and then start platooning him. . . . If it was just the batting average alone, I think we would’ve found a way maybe to keep him.”
According to Hendry then, it was more than just his batting average that did Hill in.
Mike Kiley is reporting in today’s Sun-Times that Bobby Hill will almost assuredly be sent to Triple-A Iowa to start the season. The Cubs will give the final two roster spots to Tom Goodwin (no surprise) and Lenny Harris.
In related news, Dusty Baker is upset that people accuse him of favoring veterans over young players. He’s quoted in today’s Daily Herald as saying, “That’s (b.s.) about me not caring for the young player,” Baker said before the Cubs played the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. “That’s the biggest crock of (stuff) in the world. Name me how many young players I’ve had in the last 7-10 years that I could even play.”
Well, there’s Hill, who you are apparently not going to play in favor of the less-than-stellar Mark Grudzielanek.
In other Cubs news, both the Sun-Times and Daily Herald report comments from Baker yesterday implying that Dave Veres will be the closer while Antonio Alfonseca is out, rather than going with a closer-by-committee.
Filing a report from Monday’s game in spring training, blogger Al Yellon writes: “I’d guess Trenidad Hubbard solidified his claim on the last outfield spot with a spectacular running catch on a Jeffrey Hammonds drive. Hubbard also had a hit.”
I didn’t realize Trinidad Hubbard had any sort of claim to solidify. He’s 37 with a lifetime 85 OPS+. And in the last two seasons in which he’s totaled at least 100 at-bats he’s had an OPS+ of 37 and 53. But Mr. Yellon’s comment does raise the question of why Hubbard is still in camp. He’s a righthanded batter, which would allow the Cubs to sit Corey Patterson against tough lefties. So he’s got that going for him. But being a righthanded batter who can play CF is hardly a reason to make a team.
A more likely candidate if the Cubs want a righty to back-up Patterson (Tom Goodwin hits lefthanded) is Midre Cummings (Cummings is a switch-hitter). Cummings has received almost three times the amount of playing time Hubbard has this spring. He’s 31 with a lifetime 79 OPS+ (which, in the alternate universe the Cubs operate in, may not matter as much as the fact that he’s hit well this spring). He must have been injured last season, as the 11 Triple-A games he played in were all that he logged.
The Chicago press has thus far paid almost zero attention to these two players, but they are still in camp, and thus still have a theoretical shot at making the team.
The Cubs’ lineup is still in a state of flux, with no one set at second or in the leadoff spot. Mark Grudzielanek started at second for the third straight game Monday, putting him in position to take the job from Bobby Hill, who’s still under the weather.
“Things have a way of kind of working themselves out,” Baker said. “You hate to see that at the expense of Bobby being sick, especially with him trying to get his game together.”
In the short time I have paid attention to Dusty Baker’s comments, I have noticed he has a habit of being cryptic. The above quote seems to follow that pattern, though it certainly continues the theme that Bobby Hill is in trouble.
Incidentally, Grudzielanek was 0-for-3 in Monday’s game, putting him at 1-for-14 this spring.
The answer is the Cubs, mostly because of their pitching. But in order to be “awarded” the “This Year’s Angels” award, you couldn’t have made the playoffs last year and you have to have a payroll under $90M. That eliminated a lot of good teams, leaving just the Cubs, White Sox, Phillies, and Astros as viable candidates.
So, essentially, the Cubs win the “They Might Come Out of Nowhere and Win the World Series, but Don’t Count On It” award.
With little else to discuss in the Cubs camp this spring, the topic of conversation inevitably turns to Bobby Hill (unless, of course, you consider the battle between Tom Goodwin and Lenny Harris for the final roster spot, even though Harris can’t back-up centerfield, exciting).
MLB.com’s Carrie Muskatfiled a report first Sunday afternoon discussing Dusty Baker’s comments on whether Hill will be the starting second baseman on opening day. The Trib’s Paul Sullivan has a report in Monday’s paper. I’m sure the Sun-Times and Daily Herald (neither of whom are as quick as the Trib in posting the next day’s articles on their web sites) will follow suit.
Hill is hitting .157 (8 for 51) this spring with five errors. That prompted Baker to say, “What status does he have? There are no guarantees in life. There’s no such thing as job security. . . . Bobby Hill still hasn’t come up with concrete anything yet. We’ve given him opportunities to play. That’s all I can give. . . . I’m not in the giveaway business, I’m in the earning business. If things work out, you’ve earned it. If they don’t work out . . . sometimes you can win a job by default for a little while. But you can’t keep it too long by default.”
The Trib raises the possibility that if Hill isn’t going to be the starter on opening day, he could be sent down to Iowa, though none of Baker’s recent comments indicates anything either way.
If the Cubs are really so worried about Hill’s spring training stats, why aren’t they also worried about the alternatives to Hill? The main alternative–Mark Grudzielanek–has battled sprained ankles all spring and thus only has 11 at-bats (he’s 1 for 11). The other alternative–Ramon Martinez–is hitting even worse than Hill. Martinez is hitting .088 (3 for 34).
UPDATE (3/24/2003 11:40AM): Both the Daily Herald and Sun-Times have articles on Hill possibly losing his job. Both papers add a quote from GM Jim Hendry essentially saying the Cubs wish Hill had played better this spring and that the final week is an important one for him.
The ST also has an article saying that all-field, no-hit Augie Ojeda may make the team if Hill doesn’t. Ojeda is cheap and could be sent down to Iowa when Hill is ready again. Alternatively, the Cubs would have to eat the more expensive contracts of Lenny Harris or Tom Goodwin if the Cubs cut them to make room for Hill.
UPDATE II (4:00PM): Plenty of well-written comments on this story over at Baseball Primer.
At Home Plate provides us with a list of baseball movies we could watch as we wait for opening day. One of the movies is Bull Durham. It is the official position of The Clark & Addison Chronicle that Bull Durham is a terrible, terrible movie.
The Cubs are likely to platoon Hee Seop Choi and Eric Karros at first base this season. While many of us would like to see the Choi era begin full swing, Karros can still hit lefties, so a platoon has a good chance of being effective. The problem for those of us who want to see Choi out there as much as possible is that the Mets are likely to pitch lefties Tom Glavine and Al Leiter the first two games of the season, meaning Karros would start the first two games.
Based on comments in Sunday’s Chicago Tribune, however, Dusty Baker appears to be leaning toward starting Choi in at least one of the games. The CT quotes Baker as saying, “I’ve got to see how Karros has done against Glavine. And who are they going to go with the next day—Leiter? I don’t want Hee Seop Choi to sit out two days in a row. I’ll have to see how Karros does against Leiter and Glavine. If he hits well against both of them, I have a decision to make. This early in the year you don’t want guys playing every day in spring and then all of a sudden sit out for a few days, plus an off day.”
Nice to see that Baker may be willing to give Choi a chance against lefties now and then. He did say about sitting Karros, though, “That’s a lot of money to be sitting on the bench, you know.”
UPDATE (3/23/2003 2:50pm): The Daily Herald’s Bruce Milesinforms us that “Karros . . . is 14-for-60 (.233) lifetime against Glavine with 1 home run.” That doesn’t exactly scream out “Play me!” Though there are likely a lot of decent enough hitters with sub-standard stats against Glavine.
Kerry Wood threw 6 innings, 88 pitches in a simulated game today. (Link via Brian Carstens.) Wood says he’s feeling better every day. As I wrote earlier, he needed to pitch today in order to be on schedule to pitch opening day.
