First, it appears Shawn Estes will make his start on Friday, despite the back problems he’s experienced lately. That affects how Dusty Baker can use his bullpen. He needs Alan Benes available in long relief on Friday in case Estes stinks again, so he’s going to try to avoid using Estes against the Giants.
Second, Mark Bellhorn is, unfortunately, sitting for the third straight game. Lenny Harris is getting the start at third.
UPDATE (10:05pm):Bellhorn isn’t going to play tomorrow, either. Baker isn’t going to put him back in the lineup until Friday. “I just want to get him four or five days off and get his head straight, get his thoughts collected and get his positive thoughts together,” Baker said. “Sometimes when you start struggling you start thinking negative and what bad can happen next instead of what good can happen. He’ll be back in there.”
I want to believe Baker knows what he’s doing. I really do. It’s just so easy to second guess. Perhaps this will be good for Bellhorn.
UPDATE II (11:15pm): Bellhorn pinch hit tonight and singled to right. Maybe Baker will ride his “hot streak” into tomorrow, giving him the start. (I should just rename this blog The Bellhorn Blog. A good portion of the interesting stories involving the Cubs so far this year revolve around Bellhorn’s usage. That, and Jane Seymour’s strange fascination with singing “Take Me Out to the Ball Game.” And birds.)
UPDATE III (11:30pm):Barry Bonds played like Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt shut out the Cubs as the Giants won 5-0. The latter was just the case of good pitching beating bad hitting. It happens. Remember, you can only get that kind of in-depth analysis right here at The Clark & Addison Chronicle. (Some day I’m going to write up a post saying how silly it is to say “good pitching beats good hitting.” If the pitching shuts down the hitting, then the hitting wasn’t very good on that particular day, now was it? And if good hitting were ever to beat good pitching, nobody would call it good pitching. It thus becomes impossible for anyone to try to refute the notion that good pitching beats good hitting.)
With Barry Bonds up in the first inning Tuesday night, Kerry Wood went up 0-2 in the count. Twice he threw a breaking ball that Bonds checked his swing on. The second time, with the count 2-2, WGN showed the replay and Bonds clearly failed to check his swing. Yet the 3rd base umpire didn’t ring him up either time. The umpire got it wrong, at least on the second swing, but I partially blame Damian Miller. Catchers will often act like a hitter went around, immediately asking for an appeal, even if the hitter clearly checked his swing. But on both pitches to Bonds, Miller actually got ready to throw the ball back to the mound, and then, almost as an afterthought, asked the 3rd base umpire to rule. Both rulings went against the Cubs. The count thus went to 3-2, Wood had to throw a fastball down the middle, and Bonds promptly roped it to center for a hit.
It is certainly questionable how much effect on an umpire a catcher has acting like a hitter swung. But it seems to me that a catcher will have some effect when he acts like the hitter didn’t swing, which is what Miller did.
I thought the whole thing strange.
That said, I do think Miller does a much better job of framing pitches than Joe Girardi ever did. Girardi caught pitches with his palm up, which makes the pitch appear low, way too much for my taste.
In any case, a nice 4-2 win. Wood pitched out of self-created jams. The Cubs played good defense. And put up just enough offense, including a welcome home run from Moises Alou, whose power has been largely absent thus far. One reason the offense was successful enough was that the Cubs made Kirk Reuter work, even though Reuter was often getting a generous outside corner call.
The Cubs have diagnosed Shawn Estes with a strained back. If he goes on the DL, Alan Benes will take his spot in the rotation. Dusty Baker doesn’t think Juan Cruz’s stamina would be good enough after starting the year in the bullpen. (So let him pitch 5 innings the first start and build it up from there.)
Antonio Alfonseca has started his rehab assignment at Iowa and should be back soon. So if Estes does go on the DL, Alfonseca can take his spot on the big league roster. Dave Veres is feeling better, but is likely to be sent on a rehab assignment as well.
Off and on for a few years I’ve conversed over the internet with a very knowledgeable Cubs fan. Let’s call him Dennis. A lot of us baseball bloggers subscribe to sabermetric principles. But Dennis actually understands the math underlying those principles. He’s got a great love for the game and has always provided valuable insights. Well, I’m very excited to note that Dennis now has his very own Cubs blog called Northside Lounge. He just started it this weekend. And I’m sure it will soon become a must read for Cubs fans. So go check out his site.
The Cardinals and Marlins looked like they were going The Iowa Baseball Confederacy on us, playing 20 innings today. Unfortunately for the Cubs, the Cardinals won 7-6. One of the players making such a long game possible was former Cub Jeff Fassero.
The Cardinals were up 5-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th. On came Fassero. He faced 4 batters, giving up 3 hits, including 2 homers. Russ Springer completed the blown lead and the game went into extra innings (a lot of extra innings). The Marlins even resorted to putting tomorrow’s starter – Carl Pavano – on the mound. Pavano lost the game.
Back to Fassero, though. He now has a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. Fassero, you’ll likely recall, pitched well for the Cubs in 2001 (3.42 ERA), but terribly for them in 2002 (6.18 ERA).
The Cubs usually end up with other teams’ castoffs. How is that the Cardinals of all teams (as opposed to, say, the Brewers) ended up with two Cubs‘ castoffs this season? The other being Joe Girardi, who has yet to play because of an injury (though, if you’re a Cardinals fan, that’s better than him actually playing).
The Bellhorn’s Losing His Job articles are back again. This time from the Trib. Unfortunately, since the Sun-Times published an article just over a week ago saying Mark Bellhorn was quieting his critics by starting to hit, Bellhorn has struggled again. He’s currently hitting .188/.348/.290. That .348 OBP% is higher than both Corey Patterson’s and leadoff hitter Mark Grudzielanek’s. Bellhorn’s power has yet to show up, though.
Unlike Mike Kiley at the Sun-Times, who appeared to be making up news about Bellhorn, the Trib’s Paul Sullivan at least gives us a quote from Dusty Baker: “There’s a point in time where you have to know who you have on an everyday basis. I’m giving him an opportunity to play here. It’s up to ‘Bell’ to seize the opportunity. We saw flashes earlier that he was coming out of it. I don’t know. I’ll think of something.”
Not exactly a vote of confidence.
Mr. Sullivan informs us that David Kelton is currently hitting .328 at Iowa with a .419 OBP%. There’s nothing in the article, though, that suggests Mr. Sullivan isn’t just raising Kelton’s success on his own, that the Cubs are actually considering calling him up.
It may be the case that Kelton is ready to play. If so, what I’d really to like to see is Bellhorn moved to second. Over the course of the season, there’s a better than not chance that he’ll be better than Grudzielanek, who’s really started to slow from his hot pace at the beginning of the year. I don’t expect that to happen, though.
Bellhorn should realize that his time as a starter is running out. No one on the Cubs is ready to say that [then why are you writing this “news report"?], hoping that he finds his stroke somewhere, but general manager Jim Hendry has to be laying the groundwork soon if he plans to pull off a June trade.
Whatever Mr. Kiley’s merits as a journalist are, it’s “reports” like these that make it clear that he’s not a reporter, but a columnist, even if he’s not labeled by the paper as such.
UPDATE (4/27/2003 4:55pm):The Cub Reporter has more, including a nice comparison of Bellhorn, Mike Lowell, and Shea Hillenbrand.
Toddy Wellmeyer has been promoted to Iowa from West Tennessee. Wellemeyer is 24 and was a 4th round draft pick in the 2000 draft. It’s hard to know what earned him the promotion. Last year he had a 4.70 ERA in 47 IP at West Tennessee. And this year he has a 5.48 ERA in 21.1 IP. Wellemeyer is, however, #6 on Bryan’s Baseball Banter’s top Cubs prospects list.
Shawn Estes’s outing in Coors Field today was everything we pessimistically expected it to be: 2IP, 12H, 7ER, 1BB, 1K. And it could have been worse. He left in the 3rd inning with no one out and two on, but Alan Benes came on and struck out the next three hitters.
I don’t think, though, that this performance, even in light of his previous struggles, will be held against him by Cubs management. They’ll chalk it up to the Coors Field effect. While some of it is Coors, much of it is Estes. It is possible to give up fewer than 7 runs in 2 innings in Coors. See Prior, Mark.
UPDATE (11:40pm):Dusty Baker partially blames Coors: “Worried? No. Concerned? Yeah. [what’s the difference?] . . . This has been a rough place for him, as well as for a lot of people.” Of course, one can’t really tell much from such comments. There are certainly times where a manager is not going to be completely honest in his assessment to the media of one of his players for the sake of the player’s psyche.
Estes, meanwhile, thinks he’s just giving up some seeing eye singles: “I can’t say it was the park. I pitched in a pitcher-friendly park my last game [in Pittsburgh] and got singled to death like I did today. It’s just one of those things where the balls just aren’t going at people. They’re finding holes right now. I think my luck is going to change.” That may be the case. I didn’t see the game today, but Pat and Ron sure made it sound like, for the most part, Estes was getting hit pretty hard. In any case, when you don’t strike guys out much and you don’t have the greatest control, you’re going to give up more seeing eye hits, and those hits are going to hurt you. (Note: It’s probably not fair to pick on Estes’s comments. Saying you’re going through a stretch of bad luck is just one of those things players say when they’re not playing well. They all remember the days when they did play well, and they all think they can return to that time. Some do. I’m not very confident about Estes, though.)
The Cubs Blog World continues to grow. What we lack in World Series victories, we make up for in punditry. (OK, it’s hard to make up for lack of WS victories with anything.)
From the do not do files, Cubs 19-year-old Korean pitching prospect Jae-kuk Ryu “injured an osprey with a baseball before Monday night’s game in Daytona Beach, Fla. The bird, which had been nesting with its mate and a brood of chicks on top of a 40-foot light pole over left field, was treated for a serious eye injury Tuesday.” Ryu may face criminal animal cruelty charges. “Ospreys are protected by the state of Florida, and wounding or killing one could be punishable by a fine of up to $500 and 60 days in jail.”
While this isn’t Ben Christensen bad, it’s certainly not good to attack a defenseless bird, let alone an endangered one, for sport. The Cubs immediately demoted Ryu from high-A Daytona to low-A Lansing. He may face other team penalties. Daytona will also be holding a fundraiser for an animal clinic.
The Cubs caught a break in the top of the 6th inning today. Down 2-0, with 1 out and runners on 1st and 3rd, Ramon Vazquez hit a grounder to third. With the runner on first running on the play, there was no chance to turn two. So Mark Bellhorn threw a strike to home and Mike Rivera was called out. The ball easily beat Rivera. He was safe, though. Damian Miller didn’t block the plate and then was slow getting the tag down. Miller tagged him above the belt, before which Rivera’s legs had clearly slid across the plate. Major League Baseball umpires sometimes get this call right, immediately prompting heated arguments from the defensive team. For being the best of the best, though, MLB umpires get this call wrong a lot.
The Cubs didn’t look very good today. Kerry Wood was hit and miss all day. He struck out 11 in 7 innings, but he was also wild, walking 3, hitting 3, and consistently falling behind in the count. Even though it worked out well today, why Dusty Baker allowed him to pitch the 7th inning, which he entered easily above the 100 pitch mark, is beyond me. Alex Gonzalez had an error. Miller a passed ball. And the offense looked bad. Bellhorn and Miller struck out back-to-back three times today, twice in key RBI situations. Moises Alou looked bad at the plate and is in a bit of a slump after starting the year hot. Mark Grudzielanek got doubled off first base on a fly ball to right. Sammy Sosa had two doubles, but they were both gifts, essentially pop flies that somehow failed to end up in Padre gloves.
Alas, tomorrow is another day.
Finally, one other note. Jane Seymour on singing the 7th inning stretch today: “This is the best thing that could have ever happened.” Really? The best thing? Ever? Who knew?
Posting will be sporadic until Monday, May 5, as I complete my last round of law school finals. Thanks for reading. [As you may be able to tell from the posts below, I make a habit of avoiding my studies.]
UPDATE 5/5/2003 12:55pm: I’m done with law school. What a great feeling.
SI’s Tom Verducci lists several players that have the potential of breaking Bobby Bonds’s single season record for strikeouts, 189. One of the players he lists is Corey Patterson. Entering tonight’s game, Patterson is on pace to strikeout 179 times. I think it’s pretty unlikely he’ll approach the record, though. Last year, he played almost every day and rarely walked, but ended up 47 K’s short of the mark. But the way he looks at the plate sometimes, you never know.
Here’s the pitching line from the professional debut of Cubs’ 1st round draft pick Bobby Brownlie yesterday: 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 4K. Nice job.
Cubs pitching prospect Angel Guzman also had a nice line yesterday: 7IP, 4H, 3ER, 0BB, 12K. Guzman now has a 3.70 ERA in 24.1 innings pitched. That’s not the greatest in the world, but his 25K/7BB ratio is real good.
(Thanks to Nic Z. and Ted B. for the heads up in the comments section of an earlier post.)
In Cubs blog related news, Christian at The Cub Reporter has added a very useful new feature to his site. He’s posting the Pitcher Abuse Points rankings (a Baseball Prospectus creation) of the Cubs top 4 pitchers. Check out his site for the usefulness of this tool and its limitations.
On Easter Sunday, three pitchers for the Cubs’ low single-A affiliate the Lansing Lugnuts threw a no-hitter. Cubs 2002 2nd round draft pick Justin Jones, 18, threw the first 7 innings. Weston O’Brien and Mark Carter threw the final two innings in the 15-0 win.
From the do not do files, Cubs 19-year-old Korean pitching prospect