The Cubs Chronicle

On Sunday, I wrote that Wade Miller’s strikeout rate had gone down this year, and that likely had something to do with his struggles thus far. Miller apparently decided to make up that reduced rate in one game. His line against the Cubs Friday afternoon: 9IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 14K. He did it in 102 pitches and with the wind blowing slightly out. And he really was that good.

If you didn’t see the game, and just saw the box score, you might chalk this up to the Cubs poor hitting. And while that’s part of the problem, Miller was just outstanding Friday. Sure, the usual suspects – Corey Patterson (who did hit a home run, however) and Lenny Harris – helped him out by regularly swinging at first pitches without hitting the ball hard (Alex Gonzalez would be included in that list, too, but he couldn’t hit any of Miller’s pitches, even to foul them off). But even if the Cubs didn’t swing at the first pitch, Miller was just throwing strike after strike (76 of them in his 102 pitches) and in the spots he wanted to. It was a bit similar to Jason Schmidt’s performance against the Cubs April 30. But better. (Even the home run allowed to Patterson wasn’t a bad pitch, as it was outside the strike zone low.) It might be the best pitched game the Cubs face all year. I at least hope it is.

In Friday’s Chicago Tribune, Paul Sullivan wrote an article on the infamous June Swoon. The Cub Reporter takes a more in-depth look at the June Swoon over the last three decades. It’s actually more of a regular thing that I had assumed.

Here’s more evidence that the Tribune’s Cubs beat reporter Paul Sullivan is reading Cubs blogs. (If Derek’s permalinks aren’t working, it’s the 12:50pm 5/30/2003 post.)

Cubs aim to land Lowell (Mike Berardino, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, 5/30/2003) (thanks to Michael C. for the link)

Mike Berardino has plenty of information on Jim Hendry’s pursuit of Mike Lowell. Adrian Beltre and Joe Randa remain options as well, but Lowell is clearly the #1 choice. One thing that may make dealing for him easier is that the Yankees are apparently no longer showing interest in him, as they’re seeking a lefthanded bat.

Berardino reports that 1) Bobby Hill will likely be part of the deal; 2) One of Juan Cruz, Francis Beltran, or Todd Wellemeyer may be part of the deal; and 3) any deal may hinge on the Cubs being given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Lowell.

I spent a lot of time writing during spring training that Hill should be the starting second baseman. Since that time, my hopes for Hill have diminished. He hit just .253/.327/.374 last year for the Cubs in 59 games. Which can certainly be chalked up to a learning experience, especially in light of 1) his stronger second half and 2) his posting a .382 OBP% at Iowa. But, if you combine those stats with this year’s disappointing performance at Iowa – .256/.332/.360 and just 4-for-7 in stolen bases – and the fact that he’s 25, Hill looks less appealing. That isn’t to say that Hill won’t become a good everyday major leaguer. But right now, that hope is more muddled than it was when he hit .326/.442/.491 with 81 steals for Newark of the Independent League in 2000. Including him in a deal to improve this year’s club (and hopefully the club for a few seasons down the road) doesn’t make me cringe as it once would have.

Meanwhile, Lee Sinins had some good comments today, which Dan’s Cublog notes, on how the Diamondbacks overpaid for Shea Hillenbrand, whom they traded Byung-Hyun Kim for. Those comments also underscore why we should be thankful Hendry didn’t make more of an effort to acquire Hillenbrand. He’s simply not worth it.

If the Cubs are intent on acquiring a third baseman, Lowell is the best option. He’s by no means perfect, and after arbitration following the season, most likely will be overpaid. But he’s decent. He has a career OPS 3% above league average. This year, though, he’s really played lights out thus far. His OBP% (.356) and Slg.% (.609) would both be career highs. Whether he can keep that up is a major question mark, but even if he reverts back to career form, he’ll be better than Lenny Harris, Ramon Martinez, or this year’s version of Mark Bellhorn at third base. Evaluating the impact Lowell will have, though, depends in part on what the Cubs have to give up in order to get him, and how much they’ll have to pay him to keep him.

UPDATE (1:50pm): Rob Neyer calls the Hillenbrand-Kim trade a steal for the Red Sox.

UPDATE II (11:45pm): The Cub Reporter analyzes a Hill & Cruz for Lowell trade, as well as noting that Beltre would be a bad backup plan.

It’s official: Sammy Sosa has been activated off the DL. Phil Norton was sent down. No word on Mark Guthrie, who was also expected to be activated, yet.

UPDATE (5/31/2003 12:30am): According to MLB.com, Guthrie will throw a simulated game this weekend and could be activated on Tuesday.

On May 3, Dusty Baker was quoted in this MLB.com column as saying regarding hitting Tom Goodwin in the leadoff spot: “Guys get a comfort level where they’re hitting in the lineup and I don’t want to move ([Alex] Gonzalez) around too much but ‘Goody’ is ‘Goody’ and when he plays he’ll bat leadoff.” Dennis Goodman explains, statistically, why this is bad.

The Cub Reporter links to information from Peter Gammons that the Red Sox and Diamondbacks have tentatively agreed to exchange Shea Hillenbrand for Byung-Hyun Kim. Nice deal for the Red Sox. That would remove one of the Sun-Times‘ Mike Kiley’s favorite options for a new Cubs third baseman.

Baker’s pitch-count philosophy is working (Mike Kiley, Chicago Sun-Times, 5/29/2003)

From what I understand about the effects of high-pitch counts, isn’t it a bit premature to be making that judgment?

Marlins in a bind for 2004 (Mike Berardino, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, 5/28/2003) (thanks to Michael C. for the link)

Sun-Sentinel columnist Mike Berardino discusses the Marlins’ payroll situation. They have several potential free agents and a lot of arbitration-eligible players. As a result, they really do need to get rid of some of their current players. The Cubs, of course, have been rumored to be interested in third baseman Mike Lowell and second baseman Luis Castillo. The Marlins’ payroll situation could make those players come cheaper than they normally would. Though that also depends on the competition for those players.

I’ve added a link on the left to a new site – tailgateforum.net. It looks like it could be a great place to discuss all sports. Check it out when you get a chance.

2 moves can keep Cubs in 1st (Rick Morrissey, Chicago Tribune, 5/28/2003)

The Trib’s Rick Morrissey’s solution for solving the third base “problem” is trading for the Marlins’ Luis Castillo and moving Mark Grudzielanek to third. Well, at least it’s better than Lenny Harris getting significant playing time.

Speaking of Harris, he’s bested the league average in slugging percentage exactly one time during his career. His first season. He was 23 and had 51 plate appearances for the Reds, slugging .395 versus the league average of .383. (See career stats.)

Back to Morrissey’s column: There’s a funny argument in it:

The Cubs need a new third baseman right now. His name isn’t Mike Lowell, the Florida slugger who has been floated as the answer to the Mark Bellhorn-Lenny Harris-Ramon Martinez three-car pile-up at third base. His name is Luis Castillo, who happens to play second base for the Marlins.

. . . .

Castillo’s best attribute, besides his hitting ability, is that he is a free agent next season. Where Lowell would be expensive, Castillo would come relatively cheap as a one-season catalyst.

But all I heard Tuesday is why it’s difficult for the Cubs to make trades.

“Maybe Mark Bellhorn or Ramon or Lenny will get hot,'’ general manager Jim Hendry said. “You keep your options open, but you can’t make people make trades.'’

. . . .

All I know is that the Cardinals, desperate for bullpen help with Jason Isringhausen on the disabled list, traded for Texas reliever Esteban Yan on Tuesday. Somebody’s dealing.

Mr. Morrissey actually attempts to refute Jim Hendry’s claim that it’s hard to make a deal by citing the Cardinals trading for Esteban Yan. Esteban Yan!

I thought we wanted to make trades that made a difference. Somehow, I don’t see trading for a reliever with a career ERA 10% below league average, which is before this year’s 7.40 ERA, and who the Rangers of all teams apparently don’t have any more use for, as qualifying.

Mr. Morrissey also suggests that the Cubs promote Rod Beck. Whether or not that would help the bullpen, though, doesn’t answer the question of how the Cubs make room for him on the roster, something Morrissey doesn’t address. There are three pitchers with options on the team right now – Todd Wellemeyer, Juan Cruz, and Phil Norton. The Cubs also have three players who will likely come off the DL in the near future – Sammy Sosa, Mark Guthrie, and Dave Veres. So even if the Cubs want Beck, there’s no room, an inconvenience (depending on your perspective) that Morrissey ignores.

The Vendors Union took over the FoxSportsNet broadcast in the bottom of the second inning today and gave “Mike the Vendor” a microphone. We got to follow him around as he peddled $10(!) sponge claws to people who apparently have a lot of disposable income. Mike also waxed poetic about how the people that come to Wrigley Field are the most beautiful people in the world and how he, Chip Caray, and Steve Stone are all in the business of making people happy.

Aren’t we all.

The whole episode at least gave us this exchange between Chip and Steve:

Steve Stone: “You can never get enough of ’sounds of the game.’”

Chip Caray: “One of the great inventions by Fox.”

As for the actual game, the Cubs avoided the sweep by beating the Pirates 5-4. They did it despite their newfound quest to do everything in their power to avoid drawing walks and Dusty Baker just about leaving Mark Prior in the game too long. Three-run and two-tun homers by Damian Miller (we missed ya’!) and Alex Gonzalez, respectively, were enough.

Day off tomorrow, and then a big three game series with Houston.

According to MLB.com, Dave Veres underwent an MRI Tuesday and nothing came up out of the ordinary. Jim Hendry stated that Veres “has normal tendinitis in that rotator cuff. He has normal wear and tear of a man his age who has pitched a lot of baseball. He had something with his ‘AC’ [acromicroclavicular] joint that’s been giving him discomfort.” Veres will start throwing again soon, but there was nothing in the article that set a return date for him.

Also, Mark Guthrie threw in the bullpen Tuesday and may be activated on Friday.

The Iowa Cubs website has a “20 Questions” feature up with Bobby Hill. In it, we learn that Hill believes the best thing about being a professional baseball player is “the lifestyle.” In the very next question we learn that Hill believes the worst thing about being a professional baseball player is “the travel.” Huh? And am I really expected to be excited about a 25-year-old prospect who thinks the best thing about playing baseball is the lifestyle?

A couple of items of note have happened with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs recently:

UPDATE (5/27/2003 2:50pm): Tuesday’s Des Moines Register has quotes from Kelton regarding the move to the outfield. He seems relieved by it.