Cubs Target Lowell
Cubs aim to land Lowell (Mike Berardino, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, 5/30/2003) (thanks to Michael C. for the link)
Mike Berardino has plenty of information on Jim Hendry’s pursuit of Mike Lowell. Adrian Beltre and Joe Randa remain options as well, but Lowell is clearly the #1 choice. One thing that may make dealing for him easier is that the Yankees are apparently no longer showing interest in him, as they’re seeking a lefthanded bat.
Berardino reports that 1) Bobby Hill will likely be part of the deal; 2) One of Juan Cruz, Francis Beltran, or Todd Wellemeyer may be part of the deal; and 3) any deal may hinge on the Cubs being given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Lowell.
I spent a lot of time writing during spring training that Hill should be the starting second baseman. Since that time, my hopes for Hill have diminished. He hit just .253/.327/.374 last year for the Cubs in 59 games. Which can certainly be chalked up to a learning experience, especially in light of 1) his stronger second half and 2) his posting a .382 OBP% at Iowa. But, if you combine those stats with this year’s disappointing performance at Iowa – .256/.332/.360 and just 4-for-7 in stolen bases – and the fact that he’s 25, Hill looks less appealing. That isn’t to say that Hill won’t become a good everyday major leaguer. But right now, that hope is more muddled than it was when he hit .326/.442/.491 with 81 steals for Newark of the Independent League in 2000. Including him in a deal to improve this year’s club (and hopefully the club for a few seasons down the road) doesn’t make me cringe as it once would have.
Meanwhile, Lee Sinins had some good comments today, which Dan’s Cublog notes, on how the Diamondbacks overpaid for Shea Hillenbrand, whom they traded Byung-Hyun Kim for. Those comments also underscore why we should be thankful Hendry didn’t make more of an effort to acquire Hillenbrand. He’s simply not worth it.
If the Cubs are intent on acquiring a third baseman, Lowell is the best option. He’s by no means perfect, and after arbitration following the season, most likely will be overpaid. But he’s decent. He has a career OPS 3% above league average. This year, though, he’s really played lights out thus far. His OBP% (.356) and Slg.% (.609) would both be career highs. Whether he can keep that up is a major question mark, but even if he reverts back to career form, he’ll be better than Lenny Harris, Ramon Martinez, or this year’s version of Mark Bellhorn at third base. Evaluating the impact Lowell will have, though, depends in part on what the Cubs have to give up in order to get him, and how much they’ll have to pay him to keep him.
UPDATE (1:50pm): Rob Neyer calls the Hillenbrand-Kim trade a steal for the Red Sox.
UPDATE II (11:45pm): The Cub Reporter analyzes a Hill & Cruz for Lowell trade, as well as noting that Beltre would be a bad backup plan.