Roster Moves & Other Notes
Notes from while I was away:
First up, the roster changes: Despite the Cubs indicating that David Kelton would play during his call-up, Dusty Baker only gave him 2 starts before he was sent down Sunday. Reliever Francis Beltran was called up to take Kelton’s place. According to Monday’s Chicago Tribune, Beltran was called up in case the Cubs needed a long reliever. Since Todd Wellemeyer had pitched 5 innings Thursday night because of the rain delay, he wasn’t available. The Tribune article also says that Beltran will likely only be with the team a couple of days. But it’s possible even that estimate is too long. The Iowa Cubs website reports that Iowa manager Mike Quade stated that the Cubs called up Bobby Hill to replace Kelton on the roster. (The Trib article states that Hill was likely on his way soon, but it didn’t indicate this soon; Mike Kiley said in Saturday’s Sun-Times that Hill’s return to Chicago wasn’t imminent.)
It would be poor roster management to have Beltran on the roster for more than the one game. With Sammy Sosa serving his suspension, the Cubs are down to 12 position players (with one of them the backup catcher, so really just two useable backups) with Beltran on the roster. If the Cubs really did go to the trouble of calling up Beltran for just one game, that tells us a lot about what they think of Shawn Estes, who started Sunday’s game, and the probability of him getting blown out.
Hill’s arrival, if it really is happening, gives Baker another option at third base. If they’re calling Hill up, the Cubs apparently believe he’s ready to play third at the big league level, despite the short amount of time he’s been there.
##########
In other news, if the Cubs do end up acquiring Mike Lowell or another “big name", Jim Hendry believes the Tribune Co. will allow him to increase payroll to sign that player to an extension.
##########
The Cub hitters have done a poor job of drawing walks. In April, their walk rate (which I’m calculating for simplicity purposes as BB/(BB+AB)) was 10.8%. In May, that figure dropped all the way to 7.9%. The June figure halfway through the month is a dismal 3.8%. (For comparison’s sake, Colorado lead the NL this year with a walk rate of 11.1% and Philadelphia is second at 10.9% on the year.)
While Sammy Sosa being out with an injury and now with a suspension has hurt the Cubs’ walk rate (he was on an incredible pace that first month), the huge month-to-month decline in the walk rate is unacceptable. A major factor in the decline is Baker taking away plate appearances from Mark Bellhorn and giving them to Lenny Harris.
Yet Baker isn’t worried about the Cubs not drawing walks. The Daily Herald quoted him as saying:
“You need it, but they’ve got to be given to you, too. They’re trying not to walk you. Sometimes you’re facing a pitching staff that doesn’t walk people. It’s not always the hitter’s fault he’s not walking. Most of the time when a guy walks, it’s the pitcher’s fault.”
In other words, there’s little hitters can do about drawing walks because it’s really up to the pitcher. Which has not only been shown to be wrong by sabermetrics, but is self-evident from the fact that Mark Grudzielanek’s walk totals, rather than fluctuating year-in and year-out, remain consistently low. While the Cubs will certainly face pitchers that are stingy in terms of allowing walks, to chalk up a declining walk rate to the pitchers the Cubs have faced rather than the batters the Cubs are sending to the plate misses a significant part of the equation.
##########
The Cubs signed their first round draft pick, Ryan Harvey, giving him a $2.4M signing bonus.
##########
In this article from Friday, Mike Kiley strangely informs us that, as Cubs fans, we must answer the question whether we would trade Carlos Zambrano for Mike Lowell. And it’s an issue Kiley raises based on a single game’s performance by Zambrano. Let’s Play Two provides the proper deconstruction. Meanwhile, Dennis Goodman says no, don’t trade Zambrano.
##########
Next time you’re wondering why Tom Goodwin is in the starting lineup, remember this Dusty Baker quote: “I love speed, I just can’t say it enough. Speed has been missing on almost every team I’ve been on as a manager.” (Had he just got done watching Top Gun when he said that?)
##########
Finally, a couple of Baseball Prospectus writers had some things to say about or related to the Cubs on Friday. Joe Sheehan on the NL Central race:
I’m trying not to get overly excited just yet, but there’s also a four-team battle brewing in the NL Central that could very well come down to which GM does the best job between now and August 1.
And Chris Kahrl, never known for holding punches, on the Cubs’ third base situation:
Where Jimy Williams might deserve criticism for only slowly coming to trust Morgan Ensberg, or just as slowly recognizing that there’s not a beanhill of difference between Jose Vizcaino and Adam Everett, it takes a genius of Dusty’s caliber to see somebody who poked 27 homeruns and who drew 76 walks in the major leagues last year, and not only not know what he’s for, but to actually complain about the results and ask him to be a little bit more like Lenny Harris. Dusty didn’t need time to let the mental horizons of Cubbiness provide him with a lack of vision; in a way perhaps not seen since…well, last year, Dusty just has a knack for it.