Confirming what was being talked about by MLB Radio today, the Cubs really did try to acquire Rafeal Palmeiro in a trade before the deadline Thursday, reports the Tribune’s Paul Sullivan, apparently in some quest to become the oldest team ever. And they probably would have been successful, except that Palmeiro told the Rangers he wasn’t going to waive his no-trade clause for a trade to the Cubs:
“I didn’t think it was in my best interests,” Palmeiro said before Thursday’s game against Boston in Arlington, Texas. “And I don’t think it was a deal that would [positively] impact our club.”
The Cubs wanted Palmeiro to platoon with Eric Karros at first, and would have sent Hee Seop Choi to Iowa until September.
Choi’s OPS against righties this year: 838. Palmeiro: 764. (Karros is at 773.)
Choi had a bad 40 at-bats and the Cubs have, for now, abandoned him because of it. As I stated before, this is not only bad for him, but it’s bad for the team, and no one with any say in the Cubs organization seems to realize it.
Though it would have been nicer without the 2 runs allowed in the 8th inning. With a 9-2 lead after seven innings and Zambrano having thrown around 100 pitches, was it really necessary to send him back out there in the 8th? Is the bullpen incapable of going two innings? Zambrano’s 118 pitches is not egregious, but it was unnecessay and poor long-term strategy.
The Des Moines Register reports that Bobby Hill, who hasn’t played since July 17th because of a calf injury, may start playing again next week. My guess is that the Pirates are just waiting for him to start playing him again, to make sure everything is OK, before taking him as the player-to-be-named-later in the Lofton-Ramirez deal.
The Cubs acquired Doug Glanville from the Rangers on Wednesday in exchange for low Single-A Lansing outfielder Jason Fransz (who’s not much of a prospect). Glanville played for the Cubs in 1996 and 1997, eventually being traded for Mickey Morandini, and was their 1st round draft pick in 1991. Weeghman Parkhas more on Glanville’s career path. In short, he had a good 1999, and hasn’t been very good in any other season.
This is another event in a long history of such events of the Cubs identifying a problem, but coming up with a solution that doesn’t actually fix the problem. The Cubs’ weaknesses this year have been third base, the 5th starter, and the bench (you could also call offense from the catcher position a problem, but since that problem doesn’t really have an identifiable solution at this point, I’m ignoring it).
At third base, Mark Bellhorn created a problem for the Cubs by leaving his power in last season (something he still hasn’t found in Colorado). The Cubs’ solution for too long was Lenny Harris, who created more of a problem than Bellhorn, and then a Harris/Ramon Martinez/Jose Hernandez triumvirate. Jim Hendry made a nice trade for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton to, in part, fix the third base problem, but the fact that Harris is still on the roster speaks against Hendry as much as the trade speaks for him.
The Cubs have also identified the 5th starter problem, but in that case have not tried any solutions, despite having one readily available in Juan Cruz.
The bench has also been a weakness, outside of Eric Karros (who can’t really be considered a bench player anymore) and Ramon Martinez. The primary pinch-hitters – Lenny Harris and Troy O’Leary – are both hitting below replacement level to a large degree. Tom Goodwin – who’s actually had an OK season for a backup outfielder – is currently on the disabled list. So Hendry sought to strengthen the bench by acquiring someone who’s hitting right at replacement level, and that only after a recent hot streak. Again, a solution that doesn’t solve the problem.
Lee Sinins, in his e-mail alert about the trade, used the subject line, “Cubs decide making outs is a really good thing.” And his message said:
The other NL Central contenders strengthened themselves when the Cubs acquired CF Doug Glanville from the Rangers for minor league OF Jason Francz and cash.
That may be overstating it a bit, but the underlying point is valid – this is a trade that doesn’t help the Cubs.
To make room for Glanville on the roster, the Cubs sent Trenidad Hubbard back to Iowa. Granted, it’s Trenidad Hubbard. And while I have reservations about his defense, there’s also a good chance that Hubbard would have spent a good deal more time on base than Glanville is going to. This year at Iowa, Hubbard’s .400 OBP% contributed to his having a .310 EqA, which translates to a .258 EqA in the big leagues (Glanville is at .229 this year, which is in line with his previous three seasons). And in 20 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, Hubbard drew 4 walks, a number it can take Glanville two months of full-time play to accumulate (he has a total of 6 in 201 plate appearances this year).
Don’t get me wrong – I like Doug Glanville as a player. Quite a bit, actually. I’ll have no trouble rooting for him. But my liking a player doesn’t always correspond to how good that player is. I also used to really like Shawon Dunston.
In any case, because Lofton will likely play almost every game here on out, Glanville isn’t going to see much playing time outside of pinch-hitting duties. Which means the trade for him will not matter much either way in terms of the Cubs’ chances of making the postseason (and which also means that the one asset he does bring – decent defense – will not be utiliized). What does matter, however, is that the Cubs GM sees this as a beneficial move, rather than a lateral one. Hendry is quoted at MLB.com as saying that the Glanville acquisition “puts one need behind us.”
Combine that with Hendry’s apparent disregard for the concept of sunk costs, and he has some distance to go before becoming a really good GM. The Astros apparently understand sunk costs: they waived Brian Hunter, who was making $1.2M this year. Yet the Cubs cling to players making a little money – Harris, Shawn Estes – in an unfounded hope of getting value back, when better, minimum-salaried alternatives exist.
As Dennis Goodman notes, Mark Prior threw pain-free on Tuesday. And MLB.com reports that Prior will throw a simulated game at Wrigley on Thursday, and if all goes well then, will start the game at San Diego on Tuesday.
Thanks Derek for the well wishes. Yes, I have been busy studying for the bar exam. But I’ve also kept up this site. I use it as a welcome study break. But with just three more study days left, I likely won’t post as much until it’s over, which will be next Wednesday (it’s a 2 1/2 day exam). After all, I need to make sure I’m prepared to fulfill my role in the Cub Blogger Army.
Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silverdecided to investigate (subscription req’d) whether Dusty Baker’s claim that veterans, as opposed to other players, tend to play better in the second half of the season. His conlusion: Hitters in 1999-2001 in general tended to hit slightly worse, though younger players as a group fared slightly better. Veteran pitchers, on the other hand, did improve slightly. But in any case, the improvements and declines were insignificant, meaning that whether a team is a veteran team or a young team doesn’t matter a whole lot in whether a team improves in the second half.
As has been noted in the comments section here, in the comments section at Baseball Primer, and by Scott Lange, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazettereported in today’s paper that the PTBNL in the trade for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton will be either Bobby Hill, Francis Beltran, or Steve Smyth. This report seems strange to me for a few reasons: 1) I don’t ever remember seeing a list of PTBNL options reported before in previous trades; 2)According to the Daily Herald, Cubs GM Jim Hendry won’t say anything about the list other than that the Pirates have just a few weeks to make their decision on who to take; 3) Hendry said something to the effect, while talking with Pat and Ron on the radio after the trade was announced, that the PTBNL would be no one on the major league roster. I had assumed that meant no one on the 40-man roster. All three players mentioned by the Post-Gazette are on the 40-man roster. Perhaps my assumption was wrong; and 4) I thought the Pirates would get someone better.
Despite the above, I have heard reports (though I don’t have a link) that Pirates GM Dave Littlefield has said that the PTBNL would contribute to their big league team next season. Hill, Beltran, and Smyth would all be able to do that.
Let’s assume the Post-Gazette report is accurate (even though the writer – Robert Dvorchak – doesn’t attribute his information to any source). Scott Lange thinks this is bad news. To me, this was better news that what I was expecting. I had expected the PTBNL list to include several of the Cubs’ top low-minors prospects. And if the Pirates choose Smyth, the deal will end up being much better from a Cubs perspective than if they choose either Hill or Beltran.
Smyth made 7 starts for the Cubs last year, lasting just a total of 26 innings en route to posting a 9.35 ERA. This year, he has a 5.07 ERA in 92.1 innings with 67 K’s and 49 BB’s pitching in the starting rotation at Triple-A Iowa. Last year, he was overmatched in both Chicago and in Iowa. He doesn’t have good enough control to make up for his relatively low strikeout rates in order to be a good major league starter down the road. In other words, he’s a Shawn Estes clone. As a result, I would be ecstatic if the Pirates took him.
On the other hand, if the Pirates chose either Hill or Beltran, I would be a bit disappointed, because I believe both players have a good shot at playing significant roles for the big league team next year – Hill as the starting second baseman and Beltran pitching in the bullpen. As decent a season Mark Grudzielanek is having this year, the Cubs should avoid signing him for next year. Given his career track record, it’s unlikely he can repeat this performance. His 773 OPS is 50 points higher than anything he’s done the past three seasons, and the dramatic increase in his groundball/flyball ratio (2.17 this year compared to 1.71 for his career) underscores the fact that he’s getting a lot of seeing-eye base hits.
And Beltran, who has a 2.27 ERA this year for Iowa after posting a 2.59 ERA last year for West Tennessee, would give the Cubs cheap talent in the pen next year. It’s time the Cubs start to realize that it is possible to stock a bullpen with cheap talent, rather than signing veterans like Antonio Alfonseca to multi-million dollar contracts.
That said, Hill is a 25-year-old currently posting the equivalent of a major league .239 EqA. And Beltran is a 23-year old relief pitcher striking out just 6 hitters per 9 innings in Triple-A. Losing either one is not a large problem for the Cubs, though it would mean finding a second baseman in the off-season if Hill were lost.
I have been critical of the 7th inning stretch guest singer policy at Wrigley Field in the past, largely due to the interruption that interviewing the guest provides to the broadcast of the game. But tonight something rare happened. While Pat Hughes was talking with Frank Sinatra, Jr. on the radio in the top of the 6th inning, asking him about his career, etc., Sinatra kept bringing the topic of conversation back to the game. And he did so competently. Well done, Mr. Sinatra.
Of course, Sinatra proceeded to go out and sing, “For it’s root, root for the home . . . ubbies,” even though he had said he was a Cubs fan. He only caught himself because he was singing with Ernie Banks, who was singing it appropriately. Bad job, Mr. Sinatra.
Speaking of Ernie Banks, it is the official position of The Clark & Addison Chronicle that he can sing “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” every day he wants to.
According to the Chicago Tribune, after the game Tuesday night, the Cubs optioned Sergio Mitre back to Double-A West Tennessee and recalled pitcher Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer’s stay may be short. Juan Cruz is expected to get the start next Sunday in place of the injured Mark Prior, which is what I hoped for. Still, the recall of Wellemeyer is strange. Not only has he not been pitching well at Iowa, but with the acquisition of Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton, the Cubs will have to make another roster move on Wednesday before the game to get down to 25 players. I had expected them to stick with 10 pitchers until Sunday, which they’re apparently not going to do. But perhaps Tom Goodwin’s injury is serious enough that he’ll be placed on the DL.
The Cubs