The Cubs Chronicle

Read from the bottom-up.

10:40pm: Cubs win 4-2! As I said at the beginning of this diary, it was futile for the Braves to even show up.

10:15pm: Chipper Jones was out at first. The score should be 4-to-1 heading into the 9th. He looked out during live action and he was confirmed out by the replay.

10:10pm: Memo to Fox: Yes, we get the fact that Kerry Wood has a wife, fiance, whatever. Now show the game.

9:55pm: I like that Bako got the start tonight. He didn’t come through with the bases loaded the first time, but he got one run in the second time. And now he just drew a leadoff walk in the 8th with lefty Kent Mercker on the mound. Bako has been playing better than Miller the past couple of months, and deserved the start.

9:20pm: Just a superb pick by Eric Karros at first from an Aramis Ramirez throw to get Marcus Giles to lead off the bottom of the 6th.

9:10pm: There’s 2 outs, and Kerry Wood took off immediately when Lofton hit his blooper into center. Because, you know, there’s 2 outs. Yet Steve Lyons thinks Wood showed great instincts, because you just don’t know if Andruw Jones is going to catch that ball. Memo to Steve: If Jones catches the ball, the inning is over.

9:06pm: Kerry Wood doubles home 2! If no one else is going to do the job . . . .

9:03pm: Steve Lyons after Randall Simon struck out: “You’ve got to put the ball in play.” Thanks, Steve.

9:00pm: Bases loaded, nobody out again. Same guys on. Same guys coming up. I’d pinch-hit for Gonzalez right now. And Baker is.

8:40pm: Brennaman and Lyons are already talking about whether the Cubs are feeling some doubt, after missing some scoring opportunities. Please. Find something worthwhile to talk about.

8:09pm: Not even an hour into Game 1, and my prediction (see below) is out the window. Wood missed his spot by a foot, and Marcus Giles pulled the fastball into the leftfield stands. However, that will be the only run the Braves score the entire series.

8:02pm: Ortiz struck out Sosa, too. I have to say, Ortiz looks ridiculously calm right now.

8:00: Well, he avoided the double play. Unfortunately, he struck out for the second time in 2 at-bats.

7:56pm: Grudzielanek has to avoid a double play right now with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out with Sosa on-deck.

7:50pm: Right now, home plate umpire Bruce Froemming is getting fooled by Wood’s curveball. I don’t think he’s called one a strike yet, despite the fact that several have gone through the zone.

7:24pm: More Nate Silver from the BP preview: “[N]o team will benefit more from dropping its fifth starter.” In other words, no Estes means that the Cubs and Braves are much closer than their regular season records show.

7:20pm: Karros instead of Simon and Bako instead of Miller. Interesting.

7:18pm: Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver on Sosa in BP’s series preview (subscription req’d):

Sosa’s plate discipline has regressed–he drew just 22 walks against 64 strikeouts in the second half–managing an OBP of just .305 after the break. The decline is too significant to be written off to the sample size demons, especially given that he’s 34: there’s no rule that says that aging takes its toll only in the off-season.

7:15pm: Thom Brennaman just said the name “Russ Ortiz” like it strikes fear in hitters everywhere. Yeah, he won 21 games. His offense might have had something to do with that.

7:15pm: Did we have to draw Steve Lyons?

7:10pm: Random note, but one with significance: The Braves have four hitters – Chipper, Sheffield, Giles, and Lopez – who had better offensive seasons that the Cubs best player – Sosa, based on EqA. Not that it will matter (see prediction below).

7:00pm: Boy I wish I could be with Scott Lange and Chris Yarborough at Turner Field right now.

Pre-game: With the Cubs having defied my expectations and reached the playoffs to face a team with a superior record, there’s only one thing to do: Revert to Smack Talk Mode.

With that, here is my prediction for the series: Matt Clement can relax. The Cubs will win 3 games to nothing, as Wood, Zambrano, and Prior each throw complete game shutouts. In fact, I’ll be surprised if the Braves have the guts to take the field. Because, really, this series is going to be embarrassing for them. The Cubs will score a few runs each of the first two games, and that’s all they’ll need. Then they’ll knock Greg Maddux out of Game 3 before the 3rd inning is up. And all of this is before factoring in the Dusty Factor. The only thing that’s been proven to trump the Dusty Factor is the Rally Monkey. And he’s nowhere near Turner Field.

Hold on. I suppose you’re right. I should be more realistic. OK, Wood and Prior will both throw complete game shutouts, but Zambrano will likely need some help. He’ll last 7 innings without giving up a run, then Farnsworth and Borowski will come in to finish Game 2 off.

That sounds about right.

Prior A Definite Two-Year Stud (Will Carroll & Nate Silver, ESPN.com, 9/26/2003)

Baseball Prospectus ranks the top 10 pitchers in terms of first two years performance. They place Mark Prior 8th. Dwight Gooden is #1.

What’s interesting about the list is that not one of the pitchers ever made the Hall-of-Fame (at least as a pitcher – Babe Ruth is 6th on the list). Of course, Prior could turn out differently. After all, he’s got those mechanics:

According to Gary Heil of the National Pitching Alliance, Prior was tested using high-tech Matrix-like technology to assess his mechanics.

“No one else was even close,” Heil said. “He’s the model; he’s perfect.”

Looking at what Prior’s done in his first two years, it’s amazing to see just how much better he’s gotten from his solid 21-year-old rookie season to his 22-year-old season. Of course, he’s thrown 11 more starts and close to 100 more innings, so his totals look more impressive. But take a look at how his rate stats have generally improved:

Year      K/9IP      BB/9      HR/9      ERA
2002      11.3       2.9       1.1      3.32
2003      10.4       2.1       0.6      2.43

His K rate was the only thing that got worse this year. But the 27.6% drop in his walks per nine innings rate meant that his already stellar 3.9 K/BB ratio went all the way up to 4.9 this year. And the drop in his home runs allowed rate was close to 45%.

Prior has also become more efficient. He threw 6% fewer pitches per batter and 8% fewer pitches per inning.

It’s certainly unrealistic to expect Prior to continue to improve at the rate he’s improved in his first two seasons. After all, a pitcher can only be so good. What we have with Prior is someone who’s already reached the top of his profession after having just recently turned 23 years old. Let’s hope his perfect mechanics keep him there for many years to come.

Are you kidding me? Could this day have gone any better? Astros lose their second in a row to the Brewers, while the Cubs sweep a doubleheader, clinching the division, allowing Kerry Wood to rest until Game 1 of the playoffs. I’ve had a smile on my face most of the day.

Bring on Atlanta.

Mark Grace announces his retirement.

“Chicago, thank you for 13 fabulous years. If we’re not going to be in it this year, believe me, I’m pullin’ for you guys.”

Thank you, Mr. Grace.

Reader Jay B. sends along this link to pictures he took at last night’s Cubs win, sitting right behind the Cubs dugout. (Note: You’ll need a browser that doesn’t block pop-ups to see the pictures, or you’ll need to turn the pop-up blocking feature off.) There’s some nice pictures there.

Speaking of last night’s win, was there anything less probable than Estes throwing a shutout in the 158th game of the season to keep the Cubs a game up? I know it was a minor league lineup he was facing for the most part, but still. But then Carlos Zambrano goes and has his second bad outing in row. Overuse? Bad back? Both? Who knows, but he doesn’t look very good right now.

In any case, three games to go and all tied up. It doesn’t get much more exciting than that.

While wondering why the Cubs have been able to play so well in September despite the disappearance of Sammy Sosa’s production (.205/.267/.405 in September coming into tonight’s 0-for-4 performance), we could do worse than start with what Kerry Wood has done.

After back-to-back poor performances August 16th and 21st, Wood has made 6 starts after tonight’s game. In those 6 games, Wood is 3-1 and the team is 4-2 (in the two losses, the offense scored a combined 2 runs). Wood has thrown 43 innings in those 6 starts, allowed just 5 runs (4 earned) on 26 hits, 17 walks, and 60 strikeouts. And he’s lowered his ERA from 3.80 to 3.20. It’s a wonderful performance.

One week ago, Cardinals pitcher Matt Morris had some nice things to say about the Astros and some not so nice things to say about the Cubs. Tonight, with the Cardinals all but eliminated from the division race, but with the Astros and Cubs still fighting it out, Morris took the hill against the Astros at Busch Stadium.

His line: 5IP, 8H, 6ER, 2BB, 4K, 2HR. His team lost 8-1.

It’s clear what I’m insinuating here.

Now, I don’t think Morris did what I just insinuated. But his performance tonight raises another problem with his comments last week (outside of the sheer pettiness of them) that wasn’t readily apparent when they were made (because the Cardinals were still in the race). Even if Morris really feels that way about the Cubs, he never should have said what he did, because it’s important to avoid even the appearance of impropriety.

In any case, speaking of the Cardinals, make sure to check out Scott Lange’s open letter to them.

There have been some rumors that Corey Patterson would be out until after the All-Star Break next season. The Daily Herald reported today, however, that Patterson is about to get rid of his crutches and that the Cubs say he should still be ready for Spring Training.

Looks like Steve Stone still has a desire to be a major league GM. From Sunday’s Chicago Tribune:

Cubs broadcaster Steve Stone is part of a prospective ownership group that hopes to purchase the Montreal Expos and move them to Las Vegas. The group has been working behind the scenes for months and met with Major League Baseball representatives Friday in Las Vegas to discuss their proposal. Sources said MLB’s concerns about legalized gambling in Las Vegas have been allayed, although a new stadium would have to be built.

Teamscape Corp. and Ha-Lo Industries Chairman Lou Weisbach are behind the financing of the proposal, and Stone likely would be in charge of the baseball operations. Stone confirmed his involvement Saturday, saying Las Vegas was an untapped market for a major sports franchise with unlimited potential.

Stone was part of a group that tried to purchase the Oakland A’s a few years ago and still has a desire to run a major-league team. If Stone’s new partners succeed in convincing MLB to sell them the Expos, he would leave his broadcasting job at WGN-TV.

And here I was convinced that Chip and Steve would really be with us together for at least the next decade, perhaps more. Of course, they still could be. Stone’s bid seems to me more likely to fail than succeed.

Matt Morris in Friday’s St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Morris said, “What’s sad is that these clubs [the Cardinals and Astros] could go right to the end, battling and each team winding up winning three games while the Cubs could sneak in there unscathed. That wouldn’t be fun.

“We’ve been battling way too long to expend our energy and then have the Cubs win.”

Morris said, in fact, that if the Cardinals didn’t win, he hoped Houston did. “I really have a respect for their players,” Morris said. “When we compete against them, the games are intense but they don’t have that, ‘I want to kill you, I hate you’ attitude. When it’s over, it’s easy to tip your hat to the other side.

“It’s just the way they go about it and the way we go about it. There’s professionalism involved.”

What hogwash.

Dusty Baker has named Juan Cruz the starting pitcher in today’s game over Shawn Estes. Here’s how the two compare as starters this year:

Player    IP      H      BB      K       ERA      SNPct
Cruz      24      21      7      23      3.00      .636
Estes    142.2   177     79      98      6.06      .313

Tough choice.

Baseball Prospectus’s Dayn Perry named Estes (subscription req’d) to his All-Disappointment Team on Thursday. As much as we could have expected Estes to be bad this year, there was little reason to believe he would be this bad. It has been clear that he has been this bad for awhile now, though. It’s nice to see Baker finally take the ball away from him.

On another note, updating the strikeout record quest, with 15 games remaining, Cubs pitchers need 75 more K’s to break the all-time record of 1344, set by the 2001 Cubs.

The Tribune evaluates the four Chicago baseball broadcast teams – Cubs and Sox, TV and radio. The review of Chip and Steve is mostly filled with suggestions for them, though the reporter – Alan Solomon – appears to like them well enough.

I like them both.

I do think this is a legitimate question for Chip, though: “And Chip, is it really a great at-bat anytime a hitter fouls off three pitches – two of which were lollipops he should have sent screaming down Kenmore Avenue?”

Solomon also tells them both that it’s OK to have a little silence, especially when they’re giving us information like “Moises Alou was 0 for 5 against X pitcher in April 2002.”

Mr. Solomon also informs Steve that he doesn’t “have to think out loud with whomever is calling a pitch before every pitch, because an awful lot of the time – and I don’t care if you’re Larry Rothschild – you’re going to be wrong.” I disagree with this criticism. Steve is right more than the average analyst. And even when he’s wrong, I find his opinion interesting in deciding whether the Cubs should have thrown something else.

Here’s the mostly positive review of Pat and Ron.

Wait ‘Til Next Year has posted his top 50 positional prospects and his top 50 pitching prospects. He has five Cubs in his pitchers ranking, but just one – Felix Pie – in his position players ranking. That sounds about right to me.

Speaking of Mr. Pie, his team is still going. Eric S provided a playoff update in the comments section of the previous post. And the Lugnuts won Game 2 of the best-of-five Midwest League Series last night. They’re now 6-0 in the playoffs. Felix Pie has been hitting lights out. Anyone around Beloit, Wisconsin might want to check out Game 3 tonight.

I’ve mentioned a few times on this site that I had been studying for the Iowa bar exam, and I took it in late July. For those interested in knowing, the results were posted today and I passed. So I have that going for me. Which is nice.

I started a job on Tuesday. And just two days into it I realize that writing regularly about the Cubs isn’t going to be possible, at least for the foreseeable future. I think I’ll have a hard enough time reading everything I want to about them, let alone writing about them. Going to school (and even studying for the bar) is much more conducive to blogging than working is. (For those curious, I don’t know whether I’ve passed the bar or not yet. My employer is just assuming that I’ll have passed. I hope they’re right.)

I still plan on writing, just not as frequently. That is, I don’t plan on pulling a Bryan’s Baseball Banter, whose banter is greatly missed, though it’s probably gone for wonderful reasons.

If you’d like to know just about right away every time I post something new, there are a couple of different things you can do. One, sign-up for e-mail notifications on the left. Or two, subscribe to the RSS feed using a newsreader. (Using a newsreader makes reading blogs that provide RSS feeds much faster and easier, as you can easily find out if a blog has posted anything recent and can quickly scan the headline and an excerpt to find out if you want to click and read the rest.)

For now, I’m just going to enjoy today’s wonderful come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals, which has at least one less-than-civilized Cardinals fan mighty perturbed.