The Cubs Chronicle

I remain disappointed with the way things turned out for Roosevelt Brown in Chicago. He toyed with Triple-A pitching, but was given too few opportunities to succeed under former manager Don Baylor. On the other hand, he was given 204 at-bats in 2002, and put up a disappointing .211/.299/.314 line.

Without a place for him in the 2003 team, Roosevelt Brown left Chicago and headed for Japan. It appears to have worked out for him. The Baseball Guru has a page listing the 2003 Japanese baseball leaders. Brown, playing for Orix of the Pacific League, finished 9th in the league in RBI’s, 10th in bases on balls, 7th in stolen bases, and 10th in OBP%. Brown also hit 28 home runs and finished with a .307/.392/.539 line. Alas, Orix finished in last place with a record of 48-88, 33.5 games out of first. Orix’s 5.94 ERA, a full run higher than any other team in either the Pacific or Central Leagues, might have had something to do with that.

I haven’t heard about Brown being in a big league camp this spring, so it’s likely that he’ll be playing in Japan again in 2004. I think it probable that a Brown, David Kelton platoon in left in 2004 would have greater production than Moises Alou, and for much less money.

Rooftop Report links to this Aaron Gleeman post discussing the Cubs pitching staff and their proclivity for striking out the opposition. The 2003 Cubs set the all-time record for strikeouts with 1404, breaking the record the 2001 Cubs set with 1344. Gleeman notes the 2004 Cubs have a good shot at being around 1400 again, and concludes: “And who knows, maybe someone will actually notice the Cubs trying to break a major league record this time.” Clearly, he wasn’t reading The Clark & Addison Chronicle last season (see here, here, here, and here). Though I did fail to note it when the record was actually broken.

The Cubs have signed Kerry Wood to a three-year deal, ensuring he will be with them through 2006. The contract provides Wood with a $3M signing bonus, $7.5M in 2004, $8M in 2005 and $11M in 2006. It includes a no-trade clause, and an indecipherable fourth-year option.

I like this deal, and am surprised the Cubs got away with only giving him three years. A longer committment would have increased the risk beyond a point with which I would have been comfortable. The amount of money (including the signing bonus) is essentially 10% of the budget, which seems right for the second best pitcher on the staff, where the best pitcher has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. And The Big Red C makes the good point that this deal looks even better compared to what the Astros gave Andy Pettite.

It may have been a busy February, but the AP reports Jae Kuk Ryu has completed his 100 hours of community service.

In yesterday’s Chicago Tribune, Paul Sullivan wrote, “In one 24-hour stretch, Juan Cruz went from potential fifth starter to potential middle reliever to potential minor-leaguer now that Greg Maddux is on board. Cruz bounced between the Cubs and Triple-A Iowa last year and could have a repeat this season.” One problem: Cruz, having been on the 40-man roster for three seasons, is out of options. (See Rob Neyer’s transactions primer.) Cruz is either getting traded, or he’s the long reliever.

Sullivan also has this curious quote from Dusty Baker: “I’ve talked to Juan. But I planned on talking to him. Juan wasn’t a lock for that fifth spot anyway. There are very few locks on this team. Juan is fighting for a position.”

Huh? There are very few locks? Unless the Cubs decide to eat Jose Macias’s contract or someone gets injured, the entire roster is set.

UPDATE (2/23/2004 9:25am): As noted in the comments section, I was completely wrong about Cruz being out of options. Because he was never sent down in 2002, he has another option year remaining.

Before I get to what everyone else is saying about the Cubs signing Greg Maddux, a couple of things. First, an update on how the third-year of the contract becomes voidable: Maddux must pitch less than 400 innings over the next two seasons. And the Daily Herald’s Barry Rozner has a source that says Maddux left two offers on the table higher than the Cubs’.

Second, a prediction: Juan Cruz will be traded sometime during the season. But if he’s not, one of the Cubs starters will miss significant time due to injury (commenter Michael Caldwell thinks it will be Prior or Zambrano), thrusting Cruz into the rotation. And Cruz will finish with better starting pitcher rate numbers than Greg Maddux this season.

OK, on to the commentary:

The Transaction Oracle at Baseball Primer writes, “You know you have a quality pitcher when his horrible, disgusting, filthy season consists of 218.1 better-than-average innings,” and predicts a slight improvement over last season.

As for the Cubs Blogger Army, many in the regiment are excited about the return of the guy who came to symbolize the ineptness of Cubs upper management during the early 90’s. The Cub Reporter writes Maddux is “back where he belongs,” while also noting the Ferguson Jenkins in ‘82 parallel, briefly worries about the money but dismisses it, and notes the Cubs are “back into the best-rotation-in-baseball discussions.” (Baseball Musings comes right out and writes, “The Cubs, 1-5, have about the best pitching staff in the majors.” Any Team Can Have a Bad Century enthusiastically concurs.)

The Big Red C shows his emotion and says after losing hope when Maddux left, he’s found hope again. He also notes the vast difference between Maddux and the guy – Shawn Estes – he’s replacing. Cub Fan Nation is downright sentimental, and later writes this opens the door to an eventual trade of Cruz or Matt Clement.

Cubs Blog and The View from the Bleachers both have short statements noting their excitement.

Scott Lange of The Northside Lounge is a little more subdued: “I will take some time to warm up to Maddux, but assuming he pitches well it probably will be an easy process.”

Cubs Pundit is upset about the contract (so is Ivy Chat), but still happy to have Maddux, thinking he’ll be a good mentor. One reason to ignore the money on this: This money was either going to be spent on Maddux or not spent at all. Additionally, Maddux is going to bring people to the park, and the Cubs are no doubt going to have another excellent attendance year in 2004.

Weeghman Park is happy, but has some explaining to do on how this signing means Mark Prior – the best pitcher on the staff – should be the fourth pitcher out of the gate.

Al Yellon briefly recalls Maddux’s last start with the Cubs, a shutout against the Pirates on September 30, 1992.

Will Carroll notes that this should take off some of the stress from Carlos Zambrano, who will hopefully have more gas at the end of the season.

As for the professional punditry, the Sun-Times‘ Jay Mariotti proclaims, “For the first time in a Cubbie generation, without fear of ridicule or confinement to an asylum, I can safely say that I expect a National League pennant this year.” (Link via Baseball Primer.) But if he’s unashamed to predict the Cubs to be in the World Series, does he have to use the word Cubbie? That’s not the nickname of a force to be reckoned with in baseball. It’s the lovable loser moniker that needs to be shed. And it is time that it be shed.

Finally, ESPN.com’s Alan Schwarz has an excellent account of the Cubs’ drafting of Maddux, including this line: “[I]n the 19-year history of the draft to that point, no pitcher as small as Maddux had ever been chosen in the first round.” (Link via Baseball Primer.)

(P.S. The Astros bloggers – all two of them – are silent. The Cardinals at least have some representation, as Redbird Nation chimes in with a thoughtful post.)

UPDATE (2/19/2004 8:25pm): Scott Lange at Northside Lounge has some excellent analysis (including graphs!), noting Maddux is becoming “increasingly hittable,” but there are still some things to like.

According to the AP, the Cubs have signed Greg Maddux to a 3 year deal for $24M. The third year is voidable if Maddux doesn’t pitch a certain number of innings in 2005. No word on how many innings that has to be.

In other Cubs news, the Chicago Tribune reports today that three minor leaguers have suffered serious leg injuries. Shortstop Nate Frese broke his leg in a farm accident and will be out for the year. Pitcher John Webb broke his leg chasing his dog. And most significantly, projected 2005 second baseman Brendan Harris woke up with a sore knee and is now set to have knee surgery that will keep him out up to 12 weeks.

More comments on Maddux later . . .

The Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal in his latest “Inside Pitch” column:

Cubs Class AAA RHP Francis Beltran was a revelation pitching for Licey in his native Dominican Republic, going from unreliable middle reliever to closer, ahead of Giants RHP Felix Rodriguez and Dodgers RHP Guillermo Mota. “He’s come up with a split-fingered fastball from hell,” one scout says. “From what I saw, I don’t know how you can keep him off their team.” Beltran, 24, was shut down at Class AAA last July because of biceps tendinitis, but he is expected to compete for a spot in the bullpen – there will be one or two openings, depending on whether the Cubs sign free-agent RHP Greg Maddux. Beltran throws 95 to 98 mph, and the Cubs project him as a closer in the future. . . .

Of course, unless the Cubs forego having the 6th relief pitcher a long reliever, Beltran has no chance to make the team barring injury.

Related post:
Francis Beltran Helps Dominican Republic Win Caribbean Series

Dayn Perry in a free article at Baseball Prospectus has come up with some fairly amazing information: The top 5 starting pitchers from the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ rotations – Pedro Martinez, Javier Vazquez, Mike Mussina, Curt Shilling, and Kevin Brown – are projected by PECOTA to be worth approximately 4.5 wins more than the top 5 pitchers taken from the rest of the major leagues. Those other five pitchers include two Cubs: Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The other three are Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, and Esteban Loaiza.

ESPN has a good eye for talent: It published an article by Doug Glanville on his recent trip to South Africa. (This has also been linked to by Baseball Musings and Rooftop Report.)

Related post:
Glanville on Ozzy Osbourne

The Chicago Sun-Times‘ Mike Kiley offers an interesting reason why the Cubs and Greg Maddux should sign a contract soon: He’s bored of writing about it.

Yep, that’s going to hurry Hendry and Maddux up.

Francis Beltran earned the save in the Dominican Republic’s Caribbean Series clinching victory over Puerto Rico. It was Beltran’s third save in the series, and preserved a 4-3 win.

Beltran, 23, who saw brief time with the big league club in 2002, had a 2.96 ERA in 48.2 innings for Iowa last year. Barring an injury and Beltran pitching lights out in spring training, he will likely start 2004 with Iowa again. (See Bryan Stroh’s comments on Beltran.) It will be his eighth season in the Cubs minor league system.

Maddux in no hurry to sign a new deal: Future Hall of Famer says four teams are in the mix (Rob Miech, Las Vegas Sun, 2/6/2004)

Greg Maddux’s hometown paper on the bidding for his services. The paper reports that “Maddux confirmed that he is interested in four teams and that he does not forsee signing with someone for another 10 days at the earliest, or late February at the latest.”

Redbird Nation runs a reader’s list of the best franchises at each position, and then adds to it. The reader listed the Cubs (and Tigers) as being the top franchise at second base, though I would have excluded Ken Hubbs as an example (Hubbs won the 1962 ROY and may have eventually been good, but he died too young), and included Rogers Hornsby, who played the equivalent of two full seasons for the Cubs at second base. Given that Hornsby played the majority of his career with the Cardinals, however, and if you add in Frankie Frisch and Red Schoendienst (and Tom Herr?), the Cardinals have a strong claim to the spot as well.

The Big Red C analyzes Dusty Baker’s starting pitchers v. bullpen usage patterns over the last six seasons. It appears the key factor is the quality of his starters, as opposed to the quality of his bullpen. If his starters are good, he’ll keep them out there, no matter the quality of his bullpen. The Cubs attempted to upgrade their bullpen again this offseason, and appear to have done a good job. As The Big Red C notes, a better bullpen should lower the workload of the starters. With Baker, though, that might not be the case.