Not Playing to Win
In what is becoming a recurring theme, the Cubs’ offense again failed today. Despite the verified return of the 2003 Mark Prior, who went 9 innings, gave up just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk, and had 16 strikeouts, the Cubs lost 2-1 to the Reds in 12 innings today.
The bottom of the 12th was particularly bungled.
With Kyle Farnsworth set to lead off, followed by the top of the order, Dusty Baker had the following pinch-hitting options: Jose Macias, Mike DiFelice, Calvin Murray, Jason Dubois, Ben Grieve, and Neifi Perez. Needing a run to stay in the game, the logical choice is to go with the guy with the best chance of getting on base. As Alex Ciepley noted in the comments section of this post at The Cub Reporter, that would be Ben Grieve, who has a lifetime OBP% of .366 and a 2004 OBP% of .360.
But Baker likes speed leading off innings. So he chose Macias, he of the lifetime .300 OBP% and .286 2004 OBP%.
Baker had already bypassed Grieve once. In the top of the 10th, he chose Tom Goodwin to pinch-hit to leadoff the inning. Lifetime: .332; 2004: .257. Goodwin struck out.
But Baker had to go with the speed. Nevermind that the rules of baseball allow you to pinch-run for a player after they reach base.
In any case, Macias singled to right, so the decision worked. Except that using Macias (and Goodwin earlier) took away another scenario: the possibility of tying the game with one swing. Grieve has 118 career home runs. Macias has 25.
Macias’s single brought up Corey Patterson, who has been swinging through pitches for a month now. So the decision to play for the tie with Patterson is defensible. Normally, I would prefer allowing a player with some pop to win the game with a homer, or at least drive the runner in with a double into the gap (after all, we’re insisting on leading off the inning with speedy players who have a greater chance to score from first). But, again, Patterson is worse right now than what his season averages tell us.
But Patterson fails to get the bunt down, and then strikes out.
OK, we’re still fine. Garciaparra–a doubles machine–and Ramirez are coming up.
But then Garciaparra tries to sacrifice, too. Against Juan Padilla. Padilla came into the game having allowed 21 earned runs in 22.2 innings this year. Scratch and crawl against Randy Johnson, not Juan Padilla.
Garciaparra does get the bunt down, but that leaves the Cubs with just one more out. Ramirez walked, and Moises Alou flew out to end the game. Let’s hope it didn’t end the season.