The Cubs Chronicle

It’s hard to get more conflicting than this. Here’s Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan on the Cubs’ signing of Glendon Rusch to a two-year deal (sub. for BP link req’d):

A signing I like a lot more [than the Mets’ signing of Kris Benson] is the Cubs locking up Glendon Rusch for two years.

Rusch has become devastating to baserunners, the new Terry Mulholland. He’s allowed three stolen bases in 18 attempts over the last three seasons. I think he can be a mid-level left-hander for the next couple of seasons, on par with Al Leiter and maybe approaching the better years of David Wells and Jamie Moyer.

And here’s ‘Studes’ at The Hardball Times:

Remember how Rusch signed that $7.3 million two-year contract in February of 2002 with the Brewers? He went on to compile a cumulative -35 RSAA in the next two years, which means that the Brewers essentially got nothing for their money. That was one gamble that really didn’t work.
. . . .
Glendon Rusch has always been one of the poster boys for high line drive rates, and 2004 was no different. The big improvement he made was in his walk rate, which plummeted to 2.3 a game, vs. 3.3 the previous two years. He also managed to keep his home run rate under control, which was quite a feat considering he pitched in one of the best home run parks in 2004.

As you know from the salary chart, a $2 million signing is appropriate for a 4.25 ERA given 200 innings pitched. Based on his history, I don’t believe that Rusch will match either figure in either year of his contract. A smaller gamble by the Cubs, but one just as unlikely to pay off, in my opinion.

Sheehan’s prediction of Moyer-level performance seems quite high to me. Moyer has had 5 seasons as a full-time starter with an ERA greater than 25% better than the league average. Rusch last year was at 31% greater than league average, but he did it in 130 innings, and that was much higher than his previous career best of 9% greater in 2000.

Assuming the Cubs use Rusch in a similar manner as last year, it’s unlikely Rusch will ever approach the innings necessary to match a Moyer-like or Wells-like performance, and if he did approach that number of innings as a full-time starter, I think the most we could expect would be league average performance. Which would be just fine for a 5th starter.