The Cubs Chronicle

Before the season began, The Cub Reporter held a Cubs Blog Army roundtable Q&A, in which The Cubs Chronicle participated. The following is a review of my part in that roundtable. This is part 1 of the review, which focuses on pitching. See Part II. (Note: The idea for this column comes from the Cubs Pundit, who reviewed his spring training comments a while ago.)

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Baseball Prospectus examines the Cubs in its “Triple Play” column today. The first line reads: “The Cubs might be used to failing, but Jim Hendry isn’t. Hendry has met every possible expectation during his tenure as Cubs GM, yet this off-season looms as a major failure.”

Cubs Pundit recently expressed similar sentiments: “Lots of talk but no action in the Cubs front office.”

I think it much too soon to make such pronouncements. BP bases its conclusion on the Cubs not meeting three goals: 1) trading Sammy Sosa; 2) strengthening the bullpen; and 3) signing an “impact bat.”

Of course, the offseason is not over (to be fair, BP’s pronouncement actually just states that failure is “looming"). While the Cubs don’t appear to have any plans to address the second goal, the first and third goals are still attainable. Unlikely, but attainable.

In any event, even if the Cubs held on to Sosa and failed to sign either Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez, there is much to look forward to in 2005. BP only mentions the Nomar Garciaparra signing in passing, but that was an excellent re-signing. The ‘04 Cubs finished 5 wins short of their expected win-loss record based on their run differential. (St. Louis finished 5 games ahead, cutting the difference between the two teams by more than half.) A full season of Garciaparra at short (or even a 140 game season) will be a significant improvement over putting Alex Gonzalez, Ramon Martinez, and Rey Ordonez out there.

Moreover, one of the major reasons for the failure to meet expectations in 2004 was injuries. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior only started 43 games between them. 9 of those missed starts were made by a not-ready-for-prime-time Sergio Mitre. Prior’s and Wood’s combined starts total should increase by a third in 2005. And Prior didn’t become Mark Prior again until the last part of August. Mike Remlinger also spent part of the year on the DL. On the offensive side, both Sosa and Aramis Ramirez missed time. True, Sosa’s production is down drastically from his 1998-2002 levels, but he’s still an above average hitter.

The Cubs will have a hard time replacing Moises Alou’s surprising ‘04 level of production, but they would have had a hard time replacing that with Alou himself. Alou, I suspect, just had his last year of his career posting an OPS at least 10% greater than the league (he was at 14% in ‘04).

As for the bullpen—well, it is what it is. It’s not a great pen. LaTroy Hawkins has the capability of having a dominant season, but at the least will be quite good. If Ryan Dempster is able to pull off a 2003 version of Joe Borowski and all-of-a-sudden become an automatic saves guy, Hawkins can do what he excels at—putting out fires in the crucial 7th and 8th innings. Meaning we can relax about Kyle Farnsworth having to fill that role. It could work. What would be nice, though, is a 1989 version of Les Lancaster. How about another player who’s last name starts with an “L"—Jon Leicester. (Though for the similarities to get to the eerie stage, Lancaster would have had to pronounce his name “Laster").

BP fails to get at what the real failure this offseason has been—the construction of the bench. Jose Macias, Neifi Perez, and Henry Blanco could set out-making records if just given the opportunity.

Still, there’s no reason to worry yet. This team is good. Let’s play some games and find out how good.

Prospect guru John Sickels answers a reader’s question about Cubs minor league first baseman Brian Dopirak in his latest mailbag column at ESPN.com:

I think Dopirak’s power will carry forward easily, but I’m not so sure about his batting average and OBP. He doesn’t have to turn into Rod Carew, but even marginally better strike zone judgment would go a long way towards making him a complete hitter. Despite his weaknesses, he is still one of the top hitting prospects around. He also has a good work ethic, so effort is not a problem. But unless he makes a few adjustments, Dopirak could end up as more of a “dangerous-but-containable” slugger than a complete hitter like Barton. We will know a lot more at this time next year.

Dopirak, 20 years old, hit .307/.363/.593 for Lansing last season. He was the Cubs’ second round pick in the 2002 draft.

Mike Kiley reports in the Chicago Sun-Times that the Cubs “privately . . . realize their chances to sign free-agent center fielder Carlos Beltran are dimming by the minute and almost completely extinguished” because “Beltran has to decide before Jan. 8 whether to remain in Houston or jump to the New York Yankees.” January 8 is the day his negotiating window with the Astros ends. The Cubs likely will not have traded Sammy Sosa by then, if at all.

Of course, if the Cubs really wanted Beltran, they’d increase the budget for the one year Sosa and Beltran are on the team together and/or severely backload Beltran’s contract so that the 2005 budget is barely affected.

The Chicago Tribune reminds us of something a bit sad: Only 8 players remain from the team that came up 5 outs short.

The AP reports the Cubs signed Todd Hollandsworth to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration. The salary is unknown as of now. MLB.com quotes Hollandsworth as saying about possibly playing full-time in 2005: “I’m hoping and praying that’s the way this plays out. I’m also not going to fool myself and say, ‘This is the way it’s going to be.’ My mindset is I’m going to get every opportunity in the world to play for the Cubs.”

Hollandsworth had an OPS 17% above league average last year in 167 plate appearances for the Cubs. He missed the final three months of the season with a stress fracture in his right leg. Hollandsworth has a career OPS .5% above league average.

UPDATE (10:10pm): Hollandsworth’s contract is for $900,000, and it could rise to $1.7M if incentives are met.

The story this offseason has been that if the Cubs want to sign Carlos Beltran—which they’ve indicated they do—they must trade Sammy Sosa first. In order to make that happen, the Cubs have held discussions with a number of teams, most notably the New York Mets (with the Mets’ interest disappearing and then possibly reappearing again).

Well, perhaps the Mets have decided to forego trading for Sosa and just go after Beltran himself. The AP quotes Beltran as saying recently, “The Mets have been very aggressive. So far, they haven’t made any offers. I think we’ll have a meeting very soon to talk personally.”

Hall of Fame Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman, as quoted by the Chicago Tribune’s Fred Mitchell, and posted without comment:

“I have to be honest with you. I rooted like heck for [the Cubs] to lose, because I have never seen a bunch of players who complained and whined and alibied about everything. You want to blame the broadcasters, that’s pretty weak.”

Merry Christmas Cubs fans (and everyone else, too)!

Sandy Krum’s lawsuit claims that former Cubs athletic trainer Dave Groeschner was not licensed to be an athletic trainer in Illinois until after his firing by the Cubs. Jim Hendry’s statement yesterday, reports the Daily Herald, said that Groeschner “was certified to do his job in the state of Illinois.” However, the web site for the Illinois Department of Financial & Professional Regulation allows you to look up licensed professionals. Here is the listing for Groeschner, which shows an “original date” of November 5, 2004, after his firing in October.

Former Cubs assistant athletic trainer Sandy Krum, fired in October, filed a lawsuit against the Cubs on Wednesday for wrongful termination, reports NBC5 in Chicago. Krum alleges that the Cubs fired him in retailation for reporting to Jim Hendry that former head athletic trainer Dave Groeschner was not licensed to be an athletic trainer in Illinois. The Cub Reporter has obtained a copy of the petition Krum’s attorneys filed on his behalf, and has posted excerpts.

The Cub Reporter is correct that, if Krum was an at-will employee, and it appears he was, in general he could be fired for any reason, or no reason at all. However, most states, including Illnois, recognize a claim for wrongful termination where the termination violates a well-established public policy, including the reporting of illegal conduct.

I completed a quick search of Illinois case law and could not find a case where an Illinois appellate court has recognized the licensure of athletic trainers as such a well-recognized public policy. However, section 1 of the Illinois Athletic Trainers Practice Act–the legislative act requiring the licensure of practicing athletic trainers in Illinois–itself states:

The General Assembly finds that athletic training in the State of Illinois affects the public health, welfare, and safety and its regulation and control to be in the public interest. It is further found and declared that, as a matter of public policy in the public interest, athletic trainers, as defined in this Act, merit and receive the understanding and confidence of the public and, to this end, that only qualified persons be permitted to hold themselves out to the public as athletic trainers in the State of Illinois. This Act shall be liberally construed to best carry out these findings and purposes.

Additionally, the Illinois Court of Appeals stated in Leweling v. Schnadig Corp. (1995) that “Illinois courts have consistently held that policies affecting the health and safety of citizens will support a retaliatory discharge claim.” It also appears irrelevant, under Illinois law, that Krum never actually reported the violation to someone other than his employer.

The act goes on to prescribe criminal penalties. Section 31 of the act makes it a misdemeanor to violate the act for the first time. The second conviction is a felony.

Krum’s statement today included this assertion: “Not only did the Chicago Cubs break the law . . . .” Based on my quick review of the act, only purported athletic trainers may violate the act; employers such as the Cubs cannot violate the act.

If Krum’s allegations are true, Groeschner may have committed a crime (the act allows a 3-month grace period during the application process for somone otherwise meeting the licensure requirements, but Groeschner was employed by the Cubs for longer than 3 months). And, if so, the Cubs may have terminated Krum in retaliation for reporting that crime. The Cubs, though, are initially denying that Groeschner was not in compliance with the act. Krum’s case will be difficult to prove, but not impossible, and will depend on the facts that come to light during the discovery process.

The AP reports that the San Francisco Giants and Moises Alou have preliminarily agreed to a two-year contract for $13.25M. Because the Cubs did not offer Alou arbitration, the Giants will not owe the Cubs a draft pick for signing Alou.

Meanwhile, the AP also reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers and J.D. Drew have reached a preliminary 5-year, $55M agreement, taking a potential leftfielder for the Cubs (or rightfielder if the Cubs trade Sammy Sosa) off the market. As things stand now, Jason DuBois, David Kelton, and Todd Hollandsworth will compete for time in leftfield for the Cubs in 2005.

Unsurprisingly, the Chicago Cubs re-signed Jose Macias to a one-year contract, reports the Chicago Tribune. Terms were undisclosed. Macias, who will be 33 next season, has a lifetime OPS 13% below league average. The past two seasons he has been 16% and 24.5% below average.

UPDATE: Macias’s contract is for $825,000.

The New York Daily News reported today (Adam Rubin, “Waiting game on Sammy,”) that “Sammy Sosa renewed his vows with wife Sonia yesterday in the Dominican Republic. Mets GM Omar Minaya attended the religious service, and appears to be renewing his efforts to obtain the slugger.” The only source–anonymous–quoted in the article, however, merely states that a trade for Sosa “is on the radar,” but “it’s not any closer” than it was previously.

The St. Louis Cardinals traded for Oakland A’s pitcher Mark Mulder, according to The Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal. They certainly gave up some value in return, sending Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and 2003 1st round draft pick catcher Daric Barton to the A’s. Mulder was an excellent pitcher from 2001 through the middle of last season. He then pulled a Matt Clement, disappearing down the stretch. 12-2 at the All-Star break, Mulder went 5-6 with a 6.13 ERA after the break.

It’s always disappointing when the rival acquires a big gun. Cubs blog 1060west writes, “Mulder is an ace. This was a great trade by Walt Jocketty.”

Cardinals fans are certainly excited. Cardinals blog All in the Cards goes so far as to state, “MLB’s 2004 Executive of the Year has made the deal that will likely keep his Cardinals at or near the top of the National League.” All in the Cards ignores, however, Mulder’s second half problems last year.

Still, if Mulder is healthy, one of the great things about him is that he’s just as tough on righthanders as he is lefthanders. His three-year split totals have him allowing an OPS against righties (.700) almost identical to what he allows against lefties (.693), meaning the Cubs’ big guns – Ramirez, Sosa (?), Lee, and Garciaparra, all righties – won’t have as much of an advantage against him as they would a normal lefty.