The Cubs Chronicle

Baseball Prospectus examines the Cubs in its “Triple Play” column today. The first line reads: “The Cubs might be used to failing, but Jim Hendry isn’t. Hendry has met every possible expectation during his tenure as Cubs GM, yet this off-season looms as a major failure.”

Cubs Pundit recently expressed similar sentiments: “Lots of talk but no action in the Cubs front office.”

I think it much too soon to make such pronouncements. BP bases its conclusion on the Cubs not meeting three goals: 1) trading Sammy Sosa; 2) strengthening the bullpen; and 3) signing an “impact bat.”

Of course, the offseason is not over (to be fair, BP’s pronouncement actually just states that failure is “looming"). While the Cubs don’t appear to have any plans to address the second goal, the first and third goals are still attainable. Unlikely, but attainable.

In any event, even if the Cubs held on to Sosa and failed to sign either Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez, there is much to look forward to in 2005. BP only mentions the Nomar Garciaparra signing in passing, but that was an excellent re-signing. The ‘04 Cubs finished 5 wins short of their expected win-loss record based on their run differential. (St. Louis finished 5 games ahead, cutting the difference between the two teams by more than half.) A full season of Garciaparra at short (or even a 140 game season) will be a significant improvement over putting Alex Gonzalez, Ramon Martinez, and Rey Ordonez out there.

Moreover, one of the major reasons for the failure to meet expectations in 2004 was injuries. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior only started 43 games between them. 9 of those missed starts were made by a not-ready-for-prime-time Sergio Mitre. Prior’s and Wood’s combined starts total should increase by a third in 2005. And Prior didn’t become Mark Prior again until the last part of August. Mike Remlinger also spent part of the year on the DL. On the offensive side, both Sosa and Aramis Ramirez missed time. True, Sosa’s production is down drastically from his 1998-2002 levels, but he’s still an above average hitter.

The Cubs will have a hard time replacing Moises Alou’s surprising ‘04 level of production, but they would have had a hard time replacing that with Alou himself. Alou, I suspect, just had his last year of his career posting an OPS at least 10% greater than the league (he was at 14% in ‘04).

As for the bullpen—well, it is what it is. It’s not a great pen. LaTroy Hawkins has the capability of having a dominant season, but at the least will be quite good. If Ryan Dempster is able to pull off a 2003 version of Joe Borowski and all-of-a-sudden become an automatic saves guy, Hawkins can do what he excels at—putting out fires in the crucial 7th and 8th innings. Meaning we can relax about Kyle Farnsworth having to fill that role. It could work. What would be nice, though, is a 1989 version of Les Lancaster. How about another player who’s last name starts with an “L"—Jon Leicester. (Though for the similarities to get to the eerie stage, Lancaster would have had to pronounce his name “Laster").

BP fails to get at what the real failure this offseason has been—the construction of the bench. Jose Macias, Neifi Perez, and Henry Blanco could set out-making records if just given the opportunity.

Still, there’s no reason to worry yet. This team is good. Let’s play some games and find out how good.