The Cubs Chronicle

Before the season began, The Cub Reporter held a Cubs Blog Army roundtable Q&A, in which The Cubs Chronicle participated. The following is a review of my part in that roundtable. This is part 2 of the review, which focuses on the offense. See part 1. (Note: The idea for this column comes from the Cubs Pundit, who reviewed his spring training comments a while ago.)

Q: Will the Cubs score enough runs to hold off the Astros in the NL Central?

The Astros scored 81 more runs than the Cubs last year. But when you take into account park factors, the difference becomes much smaller (just 25 Equivalent Runs). Houston has the same lineup this year it did last year, except Bagwell, Biggio, and Kent are all a year older. I don’t think the Cubs will catch up to Houston offensively this year, whether on a ballpark-neutral basis or not, but the difference between the two teams isn’t great. So, the Cubs can score enough runs to beat Houston this year, but Sosa and Alou must stave off further declines.

Sosa wasn’t able to stave off a further decline, but Alou posted his best season—from a runs created standpoint—since 1998, while at the same time making many Cubs fans wish he’d stop whining so much. The Cubs only finished 14 runs short of the Astros, though Wrigley Field surprisingly played as more of a hitter’s park than Enron did in 2004. Of course, it was the St. Louis Cardinals that the Cubs ended up having to be worried about. St. Louis scored 66 more runs than the Cubs, leading the NL in runs scored with 5.28/game (with Busch playing as a pitcher’s park).

While the Cubs were a good offensive club, disappointment lies in the fact that the team was only “good” when it led the league in home runs. A slightly below-average OBA contributed to a lot of those homers being solo homers. That OBA can be at least partly attributable to Dusty-ball. In March, Dusty Baker explained his philosophy regarding walks, in what has to be the quote of the year: “I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.”

Q: Who will have a better 2004, Michael Barrett or Damian Miller?

I’m not very confident about Barrett, but Damian Miller looked more overmatched last year than any other time I’ve seen him in his career. Miller is essentially done as a major league caliber hitter. Barrett should be better.

I hereby apologize to Damian Miller for that comment. Miller put up respectable numbers for Oakland in 2004 (.272/.339/.403 in 442 plate appearances). His OPS was 4% below the league average, but that’s above average for a catcher. Still, Barrett was better, posting .287/.337/.489 averages, for an OPS 2.5% above league average.

Q: Who will have a better 2004, Derrek Lee or Hee Seop Choi?

Hee Seop Choi. This contradicts what I’ve said earlier. Just trying to cover my bases.

I should have stuck with my original prediction. Though for awhile it looked like I would be right. At the end of April, Choi had a 1.157 OPS for the Marlins and Lee was at .744. Even at the end of May, Choi’s OPS was 162 points higher. Then Choi, as in 2003, faded, especially after the Marlins traded him to the Dodgers (which I thought was a nice trade for the Dodgers). Choi still actually ended up with an OPS relative to the league 1% higher than Lee, but Lee had about 270 more plate appearances, making him much more valuable.

Q: Who will have a better 2005, Derrek Lee or Hee Seop Choi?

Hee Seop Choi. I really think Choi will be a star, and Derrek Lee will be really good. But he won’t be Choi.

I stand by this prediction.

Q: What sort of seasons do you expect Moises Alou and Corey Patterson to have? If one or the other struggles, will Dusty pull them from the lineup, or stick with them?

Corey Patterson drew 8 walks in his last 14 games last year. Based on that, I was half convinced that he had figured out the strike zone when he went down with the knee injury. (To further my delusion, I’m ignoring that he didn’t draw one walk in the 16 games prior to that.) Patterson will come back strong this year, continuing to show power and improved plate discipline. Whether we can ever expect anything more than Garrett Anderson out of Patterson, I doubt it, but Garrett Anderson ain’t that bad. Moises Alou will struggle at times, and overall be slightly worse than last year. But no matter what happens, there’s no way Baker will ever pull him from the lineup. On the other hand, if Patterson ends up struggling, Baker will be happy to go to Tom Goodwin.

As already noted, I was clearly wrong about Alou. As for Patterson, his walk rate over the past three seasons has gone from 3.0 walks per 100 plate appearances, to 4.3, to 6.6 last year. For some strange reason, though, Patterson was actually worse at the plate last season than he was in 2003. He went from an OPS 8% above league average to 4% below. The difference is largely one of batting average, which tends to fluctuate more so than other stats. Still, Patterson was thankfully good enough that we avoided Goodwin being given extended time in center.

Q: Who will get more playing time at second base, Mark Grudzielanek or Todd Walker? Who *should* get more playing time?

I think it’ll end up being fairly even. Walker should get more playing time for the simple reason that he can hit righties, and Grudzielanek can’t. But that’s not how Baker works.

Walker had 424 plate appearances to Grudzielanek’s 278, and Walker’s production, as expected, was a bit better. Walker’s greater playing time, though, was largely a function of Grudzielanek’s early season Achilles’ injury, which caused him to miss 2 months.

Q: Recently, GM Jim Hendry locked up Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood and Derrek Lee for the next few years. Who on the current roster, if anyone, should get the next long-term contract?

No one until the end of the season, and then if both Prior and Zambrano get through the year healthy, deals that cover their first two arbitration eligible years would be warranted. Unless Aramis Ramirez really shines this year, he shouldn’t be given a long-term contract ever.

Prior didn’t get through the year healthy, but finished strong. Zambrano was excellent, finishing 3rd in the NL in ERA+ (after finishing 8th in 2003). Ramirez finished 6th among major league third baseman in EqA, and should be in line for a multi-year contract soon.

Q: As a Cubs fan, are you having a hard time dealing with the fact that the Cubs go into this season as favorites?

No.

I’m still not having a hard time, though I do not believe they will be considered the favorites in 2005.

Q: What are you looking forward to about the 2004 Cubs? What are you dreading about them?

Dusty Baker. To both questions. His personality continues to inspire confidence, and his strategic decisions continue to leave me wondering why.

After the whining of the players last season (not about Baker, but whining in general), I’m less certain that his personality inspires confidence. Of course, winning a championship will cure all. Let it be so.