In what is becoming a recurring theme, the Cubs’ offense again failed today. Despite the verified return of the 2003 Mark Prior, who went 9 innings, gave up just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk, and had 16 strikeouts, the Cubs lost 2-1 to the Reds in 12 innings today.
The bottom of the 12th was particularly bungled.
With Kyle Farnsworth set to lead off, followed by the top of the order, Dusty Baker had the following pinch-hitting options: Jose Macias, Mike DiFelice, Calvin Murray, Jason Dubois, Ben Grieve, and Neifi Perez. Needing a run to stay in the game, the logical choice is to go with the guy with the best chance of getting on base. As Alex Ciepley noted in the comments section of this post at The Cub Reporter, that would be Ben Grieve, who has a lifetime OBP% of .366 and a 2004 OBP% of .360.
But Baker likes speed leading off innings. So he chose Macias, he of the lifetime .300 OBP% and .286 2004 OBP%.
Baker had already bypassed Grieve once. In the top of the 10th, he chose Tom Goodwin to pinch-hit to leadoff the inning. Lifetime: .332; 2004: .257. Goodwin struck out.
But Baker had to go with the speed. Nevermind that the rules of baseball allow you to pinch-run for a player after they reach base.
In any case, Macias singled to right, so the decision worked. Except that using Macias (and Goodwin earlier) took away another scenario: the possibility of tying the game with one swing. Grieve has 118 career home runs. Macias has 25.
Macias’s single brought up Corey Patterson, who has been swinging through pitches for a month now. So the decision to play for the tie with Patterson is defensible. Normally, I would prefer allowing a player with some pop to win the game with a homer, or at least drive the runner in with a double into the gap (after all, we’re insisting on leading off the inning with speedy players who have a greater chance to score from first). But, again, Patterson is worse right now than what his season averages tell us.
But Patterson fails to get the bunt down, and then strikes out.
OK, we’re still fine. Garciaparra–a doubles machine–and Ramirez are coming up.
But then Garciaparra tries to sacrifice, too. Against Juan Padilla. Padilla came into the game having allowed 21 earned runs in 22.2 innings this year. Scratch and crawl against Randy Johnson, not Juan Padilla.
Garciaparra does get the bunt down, but that leaves the Cubs with just one more out. Ramirez walked, and Moises Alou flew out to end the game. Let’s hope it didn’t end the season.
I don’t think so. Running at home plate umpire Eric Cooper and screaming at him drew Kerry Wood a big ovation from the crowd today, but his class failed him. It happens to most of us, and certainly to me, but we shouldn’t cheer it. (Al Yellon says Cooper started toward the mound first. You couldn’t tell that from the TV. And it doesn’t excuse what Wood did in any case.)
The calls made by Cooper weren’t even of the are you blind?! variety. The third ball to Adam Dunn clearly missed the plate; the fourth ball I thought caught the plate, but it was awfully close.
A couple of other reasons why the Cubs lost today, other than Cooper’s calls:
Letting Cory Lidle off the hook with Aramis Ramirez grounding into a double play with the bases loaded in the first inning.
The Cub offense having 1 extra-base hit (Sammy Sosa’s double) and 1 walk (Moises Alou).
Wood missing his spot on the 1-2 pitch to Wily Mo Pena that was lined for a base hit to take the lead. This was Wood’s 131st pitch, so this could be blamed on Baker more than anyone. Jim Hendry did go out and upgrade the bullpen this offseason (again), right? (And as The Big Red C notes, there is evidence Wood is not near as effective in starts after throwing at least 120 pitches in his previous start, so Baker may have negatively affected the next game in which Wood pitches.)
That said – the game is over. I can’t wait for tomorrow’s game.
The top of the 8th inning of tonight’s game was the most disappointing half-inning of baseball I have ever watched.
Up 3-2 in the series, 3-0 in the game, with just 5 outs to go before winning a National League pennant, and Mark Prior crusing along, everything seemed just right. Then Juan Pierre doubled to left.
Then came the fan interference – Luis Castillo hit a pop fly down the left field line. Alou reached the wall and jumped for the ball. But a fan went for the ball, too, and the fan’s hands got in the way. Alou’s glove was clearly in a position to make the play, and that would have meant 2 outs with a guy on. Instead, Castillo was given new life and drew a walk, with ball four getting past Paul Bako to put runners in first and third with 1 out.
Thom Brennaman and Steve Lyons told us for the rest of the game that you can’t blame the fan. Well, you can’t blame the fan for the Cubs’ collapse, but you can blame the fan for getting in the way, and making it harder on the Cubs. Thankfully, it sounds like Wrigley Field security did a nice job of safely escorting the fan out. Blaming the fan is one thing. Verbally and physically abusing him is another, and is much, much worse than anything the fan did to interfere with the play. It should also be noted that if that fan had not interfered with the play, there were two other fans ready and willing to do so had the actual interfering fan not been in the way. (Note: There are better pictures of the fan interference play than the one shown, but the one shown does not show the fan’s face. He likely thinks right now that it’s been shown enough.)
After that, an 0-2 curve to Pudge Rodriguez didn’t break a whole lot, and Rodriguez lined it into left to make the score 3-1. Then Alex Gonzalez dropped an easy grounder, loading the bases. Then Derrek Lee doubled to left, scoring 2 to tie the game. Prior was pulled for Kyle Farnsworth. After Farnsworth intentionally walked Mike Lowell, Jeff Conine hit a deep sac fly to right. For some unknown reason, Sammy Sosa threw toward the plate, allowing the runner on first to go to second, removing the force play and putting another runner in scoring position.
Then, after an intentional walk to Todd Hollandsworth, Mike Mordecai nailed a double to left-center. Mike Mordecai. Of course.
Farnsworth exited for Mike Remlinger, who allowed a single to Pierre to score Mordecai.
8-3. Game over.
And then Thom Brennaman starts talking about the goat curse. There’s nothing like listening to an announcer avoid talking real baseball in favor of an irrelevancy after your favorite team has just allowed 8 runs in an inning to lose Game 6 of a league championship series.
Again, the most disappointing half-inning I have ever watched.
If the Cubs come back from this tomorrow, Dusty Baker (and probably Kerry Wood, tomorrow night’s starter) deserves a lot of credit. The Cubs fell apart after the fan interference play. Of course, just because one thing follows another does not mean there is a cause-effect relationship. But it’s possible. And it’s possible it will carry over into tomorrow. The realist in me says that’s silly, that you can’t put that much meaning into one game.
When the game was over tonight, I stared at the TV for a few moments. It wasn’t supposed to happen that way. Sosa’s ball was supposed to go out of the park. So close . . . .
Oh, well. It just means that the Cubs have to travel to Atlanta to finish off the Braves tomorrow night. I have two predictions: 1) Kerry Wood effectively tells Mark Prior – what you can do, I can do better; and 2) Robert Fick, if he’s allowed to play, will get booed. Loudly. And deservedly. And those of us watching on TV will hear it, because Cubs fans, including Cubs Blogger Army member Scott Lange, will be out in full force.
On another note, I agree with David Pinto about something else: Chipper Jones can’t play leftfield. The Cubs got two doubles tonight that a better leftfielder might have caught. Of course, with the two homers Chipper hit, the Braves hardly have reason to care.
“It’s an elimination game and you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do,” Fick said in a profanity-laced explanation. “I’m not saying I did it on purpose. But it’s … baseball.”
Prior and the Cubs defeated Maddux and the Braves 3-1 in the much anticipated showdown between the past and future (present?) of pitching greatness tonight. Prior only allowed 2 hits in throwing a complete game. And don’t forget – Prior was facing an offense that scored 5.6 runs per game during the regular season; Maddux was facing an offense that scored more than a run per game less than that.
Meanwhile, Bobby Cox has said that he’s leaning toward starting Russ Ortiz on 3 days rest tomorrow. I think it’s a smart move. The alternative – Horacio Ramirez – is a lefty. And the Cubs hit lefties well. That said, the Cubs handled Ortiz – a decent, but not great pitcher pitching for a great offensive team – in Game 1. They can do it again.
10:40pm: Cubs win 4-2! As I said at the beginning of this diary, it was futile for the Braves to even show up.
10:15pm: Chipper Jones was out at first. The score should be 4-to-1 heading into the 9th. He looked out during live action and he was confirmed out by the replay.
10:10pm: Memo to Fox: Yes, we get the fact that Kerry Wood has a wife, fiance, whatever. Now show the game.
9:55pm: I like that Bako got the start tonight. He didn’t come through with the bases loaded the first time, but he got one run in the second time. And now he just drew a leadoff walk in the 8th with lefty Kent Mercker on the mound. Bako has been playing better than Miller the past couple of months, and deserved the start.
9:20pm: Just a superb pick by Eric Karros at first from an Aramis Ramirez throw to get Marcus Giles to lead off the bottom of the 6th.
9:10pm: There’s 2 outs, and Kerry Wood took off immediately when Lofton hit his blooper into center. Because, you know, there’s 2 outs. Yet Steve Lyons thinks Wood showed great instincts, because you just don’t know if Andruw Jones is going to catch that ball. Memo to Steve: If Jones catches the ball, the inning is over.
9:06pm: Kerry Wood doubles home 2! If no one else is going to do the job . . . .
9:03pm: Steve Lyons after Randall Simon struck out: “You’ve got to put the ball in play.” Thanks, Steve.
9:00pm: Bases loaded, nobody out again. Same guys on. Same guys coming up. I’d pinch-hit for Gonzalez right now. And Baker is.
8:40pm: Brennaman and Lyons are already talking about whether the Cubs are feeling some doubt, after missing some scoring opportunities. Please. Find something worthwhile to talk about.
8:09pm: Not even an hour into Game 1, and my prediction (see below) is out the window. Wood missed his spot by a foot, and Marcus Giles pulled the fastball into the leftfield stands. However, that will be the only run the Braves score the entire series.
8:02pm: Ortiz struck out Sosa, too. I have to say, Ortiz looks ridiculously calm right now.
8:00: Well, he avoided the double play. Unfortunately, he struck out for the second time in 2 at-bats.
7:56pm: Grudzielanek has to avoid a double play right now with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out with Sosa on-deck.
7:50pm: Right now, home plate umpire Bruce Froemming is getting fooled by Wood’s curveball. I don’t think he’s called one a strike yet, despite the fact that several have gone through the zone.
7:24pm: More Nate Silver from the BP preview: “[N]o team will benefit more from dropping its fifth starter.” In other words, no Estes means that the Cubs and Braves are much closer than their regular season records show.
7:20pm: Karros instead of Simon and Bako instead of Miller. Interesting.
7:18pm:Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver on Sosa in BP’s series preview (subscription req’d):
Sosa’s plate discipline has regressed–he drew just 22 walks against 64 strikeouts in the second half–managing an OBP of just .305 after the break. The decline is too significant to be written off to the sample size demons, especially given that he’s 34: there’s no rule that says that aging takes its toll only in the off-season.
7:15pm: Thom Brennaman just said the name “Russ Ortiz” like it strikes fear in hitters everywhere. Yeah, he won 21 games. His offense might have had something to do with that.
7:15pm: Did we have to draw Steve Lyons?
7:10pm: Random note, but one with significance: The Braves have four hitters – Chipper, Sheffield, Giles, and Lopez – who had better offensive seasons that the Cubs best player – Sosa, based on EqA. Not that it will matter (see prediction below).
Pre-game: With the Cubs having defied my expectations and reached the playoffs to face a team with a superior record, there’s only one thing to do: Revert to Smack Talk Mode.
With that, here is my prediction for the series: Matt Clement can relax. The Cubs will win 3 games to nothing, as Wood, Zambrano, and Prior each throw complete game shutouts. In fact, I’ll be surprised if the Braves have the guts to take the field. Because, really, this series is going to be embarrassing for them. The Cubs will score a few runs each of the first two games, and that’s all they’ll need. Then they’ll knock Greg Maddux out of Game 3 before the 3rd inning is up. And all of this is before factoring in the Dusty Factor. The only thing that’s been proven to trump the Dusty Factor is the Rally Monkey. And he’s nowhere near Turner Field.
Hold on. I suppose you’re right. I should be more realistic. OK, Wood and Prior will both throw complete game shutouts, but Zambrano will likely need some help. He’ll last 7 innings without giving up a run, then Farnsworth and Borowski will come in to finish Game 2 off.
Reader Jay B. sends along this link to pictures he took at last night’s Cubs win, sitting right behind the Cubs dugout. (Note: You’ll need a browser that doesn’t block pop-ups to see the pictures, or you’ll need to turn the pop-up blocking feature off.) There’s some nice pictures there.
Speaking of last night’s win, was there anything less probable than Estes throwing a shutout in the 158th game of the season to keep the Cubs a game up? I know it was a minor league lineup he was facing for the most part, but still. But then Carlos Zambrano goes and has his second bad outing in row. Overuse? Bad back? Both? Who knows, but he doesn’t look very good right now.
In any case, three games to go and all tied up. It doesn’t get much more exciting than that.
With Shawn Estes having allowed 5 runs in his first two innings of work, Dusty Baker is pinch hitting for him with Tony Womack in the bottom of the 2nd right now. The crowd gave Womack a cheer (which was really a cheer against Estes) that I’m guessing Womack hasn’t heard since his clutch hit in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.
The Tribune’s headline in its recap of Thursday night’s 3-2 loss to the Cardinals is “Cub pen fails again”. The headline, and Paul Sullivan’s recap, both ignore that the offense failed for the second game in a row, too.
AS IF WE NEEDED MORE EVIDENCE OF BAKER’S PREFERENCE FOR VETERANS: A separate Tribune article says that Baker has demoted Kyle Farnsworth to 6th and 7th inning duty. Antonio Alfonseca and Mike Remlinger will pitch the 8th inning now. Here’s Baker’s predictable reasoning:
“He’s young, he still has a lot to learn,” Cubs manager Dusty Baker said. “He never has been in this pressure cooker before. It’s different. You can say, ‘Hey, man, I know I can do this. I know I can handle this.’ But until you’re there. … He’ll be better because of this. I may have to reconsider things in the bullpen.
. . . .
Alfonseca came into Thursday’s game having allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last two outings, but Baker said he has experience in pressure situations.
As I noted earlier, Farnsworth has been struggling, so this move could work out. But Alfonseca has been struggling all year. Remlinger has pitched better post-All-Star Break, but giving up game winning home runs to the Kerry Robinsons of the world isn’t exactly shutting the door. In short, the entire bullpen just needs to pitch better. Except Joe Borowski and Mark Guthrie, who are doing just fine. So why isn’t Guthrie a candidate to be the top setup man? I’m sure if you asked him, he’d say he could pitch to more than one batter. And he’s a veteran.
Baker can’t expect us to read the above comments and ever take seriously again any assertions he makes (like he was making in spring training) that he doesn’t have a severe preference for veteran players.
And it’s as if Baker didn’t even watch last year’s World Series, despite managing in it. Two rookie relief pitchers – Francisco Rodriguez and Brendan Donnelly – threw 16.1 innings against Baker’s Giants in that series, allowing just 2 earned runs. To top it all off, a rookie – John Lackey – was the winning starting pitcher in Game 7.
But young players can’t handle the pressure. Alfonseca, though, he’s been there. He can handle it. What’s that you say? Alfonseca was a rookie when he pitched in the 1997 World Series? Well who woulda thunk.
Lots of disappointing things in tonight’s 4-2 loss to the Cardinals – Moises Alou’s failure to drive home Sosa from third with 1 out in the top of the 8th, 3 relief pitchers brought in to get just one guy out in the bottom of the 8th and none of them doing the job, Ramon Martinez’s failure to turn two that resulted in the 4th Cardinal run, etc. All of which ended up wasting Kerry Wood’s strong performance after two straight bad starts.
The Cubs still had a good chance when Kyle Farnsworth entered the game in the bottom of the 8th with runners on first and second and no one out, but with the Cubs still up 2-0. Farnsworth, though, gave up a walk, single, wild pitch, and a sacrifice that led to both inherited runners scoring and two runs being charged to himself. After play on July 7, Farnsworth had a 2.13 ERA. Since then, he’s thrown 20 innings and allowed 14 earned runs, a 6.30 ERA. As the top setup man, the Cubs need him to pitch better.
UPDATE (8/28/2003 12:20pm): Is Moises Alou the anti-Shawn Estes? Here’s Alou in the Chicago Tribune on why he exited through the bullpen rather than head straight to the dugout when Baker replaced him via a double-switch in the 8th:
“It was the shortest way [to the clubhouse] and I was kind of embarrassed,” Alou said. “I played a bad game.”
When Estes pitches poorly, he has a habit of saying that he actually pitched well, the other team just got lucky. When Alou doesn’t play well, he admits it, which I appreciate.
After his gem Tuesday night against the first-place Astros, a 5-hit shutout, Carlos Zambrano has now pitched 158.1 innings this year and only allowed 5 home runs. According to his ESPN.com page, he’s on pace to pitch 219 innings and allow 7 home runs. According to my research, the last Cubs pitcher to pitch at least 200 innings and allow 7 or fewer home runs was Sheriff Blake, who did it both in 1927 and 1928 (and only gave up 8 homers in 1929). No other Cubs pitcher in the post-dead ball era has accomplished the feat. (Granted, a look at home run rates, relative to the league, would tell us more, but I don’t have the time to go that in-depth with my research. I offer the above only as something that’s really interesting, at least to me.)
Zambrano’s win means that he has earned the win in five straight starts, a span over which he’s posted a 1.43 ERA. When Zambrano defeated the Astros in Houston on July 25 by pitching 8.1 innings and hitting a 2-run homer, I called it The Zambrano Game, a reference to The Sandberg Game on July 23, 1984. The Sandberg Game is often credited with propelling the Cubs to the 1984 division title and Sandberg to the MVP award. Could The Zambrano Game do the same this year – propel the Cubs to the division title and Zambrano to the Cy Young Award?
I don’t really think one game, by itself, will propel the Cubs anywhere, but the stated result is not outside the realm of possibilities. If Zambrano continues to excel (even if not at the pace he’s set over his past five starts) and the Cubs win the division, Zambrano could be a Cy Young Award candidate. Zambrano’s 3.07 ERA (and falling) is now 9th in the NL, and he’s 10th in innings pitched. Granted, it would take some other pitchers faltering, and the Cubs would have to win the divison for this to play out, but it’s possible, even if he wouldn’t ultimately be the most deserving pitcher.
Zambrano can also hit a bit, which created an interesting situation in Tuesday night’s game (which Al Yellon notes as well): Astros manager Jimy Williams intentionally walking Augie Ojeda with runners on second and third and one out to get to Zambrano. Zambrano’s OPS this year: 632. Ojeda’s career OPS: 550. (In Williams’s defense, the IBB did set up the double play and/or the force at home, and ultimately worked, as Zambrano struck out.)
A few notes from tonight’s 3-1 loss to the Astros while trying to get over the sight of Fox Sports Net’s Gail Fischer playing the part on 70’s night:
The most disappointing event of the night (outside of the lack of offense this side of Sammy Sosa, which has been a recurrent theme for several years, and is thus not an event) was Aramis Ramirez’s at-bat in the bottom of the 8th. With 1 out and the Cubs down 2-1, Ramirez hit a blooper to right, and didn’t hustle to first. Richard Hidalgo raced in and reached the ball, but dropped it. Only when Ramirez saw Hidalgo drop the ball did he start running hard, thinking he had a chance at second base. But he had no chance at second because he wasn’t hustling to begin with, so he tried to scramble back to first and was thrown out for the second out in the inning.
The least disappointing event of the night was Troy O’Leary’s at-bat against Billy Wagner in the 9th, in which Wagner struck O’Leary out. I say least disappointing because as soon as O’Leary stepped into the box, you knew that’s what the result would be. O’Leary just looked helpless standing there. I think Darren Baker – Dusty’s 5-year-old son – would have had a better shot against Wagner.
As has been noted by the Chicago media, Kerry Wood had a chance to set some strikeout records tonight, and he did. His 9 strikeouts gave him 1000 for his career. He broke Roger Clemens’s record for fewest games to reach that total: Wood did it in 134 games; Clemens in 143; Dwight Gooden in 145; Hideo Nomo in 147. Wood also broke Nomo’s record for fewest innings to reach 1000 strikeouts: Wood did it in 853 innings; Nomo 927.2; Sam McDowell 932.2; Pedro Martinez 933.2.
Yesterday, Dusty Baker told the media that Mark Prior would be on a pitch count limit of 90 today in this his second start since his return from the disabled list (though Ron Santo said on the radio before the game that Prior would be allowed to throw up to 100 pitches). Prior, of course, threw a complete, 1-run allowed game today for the win. It took him 116 pitches.
I don’t know if 116 pitches was too many for his second start off the DL. Prior was clearly throwing well: 84 of his pitches were strikes, he only walked 1, and struck out 9. But if Baker thinks before the game that it’s necessary to limit Prior’s pitches such that he tells everyone that’s what he’s going to do, he should stick to that plan. The reasons for limiting a pitcher’s pitch count don’t disappear after he’s thrown 8 innings. And it’s not as if the guys Baker had warming up in the bullpen in the 9th – Joe Borowski and Mark Guthrie – have been ineffective this year. Either Prior’s health was such that he needed the limit, or it wasn’t, and Baker had indicated that it was such.
On another note, Prior’s Game Score in today’s game was 81, his third highest of the season. He had a 91 shutting out Montreal on April 9, and an 82 in his 16-strikeout performance against Milwaukee June 26.
Juan Cruz’s line from today’s game: 6IP, 5H, 0R, 0BB, 6K. He left the game down 1-to-0, but Sammy Sosa just hit a sacrifice fly against Curt Schilling to score Lenny Harris to tie the game.
Cruz should be in the rotation for the rest of the year, and Shawn Estes should be released. I have little confidence that that will actually happen, no matter how Estes fares tomorrow.
Is it necessary to have 
Then came the fan interference – Luis Castillo hit a pop fly down the left field line. Alou reached the wall and jumped for the ball. But a fan went for the ball, too, and the fan’s hands got in the way. Alou’s glove was clearly in a position to make the play, and that would have meant 2 outs with a guy on. Instead, Castillo was given new life and drew a walk, with ball four getting past Paul Bako to put runners in first and third with 1 out.
After that, an 0-2 curve to Pudge Rodriguez didn’t break a whole lot, and Rodriguez lined it into left to make the score 3-1. Then Alex Gonzalez dropped an easy grounder, loading the bases. Then Derrek Lee doubled to left, scoring 2 to tie the game. Prior was pulled for Kyle Farnsworth. After Farnsworth intentionally walked Mike Lowell, Jeff Conine hit a deep sac fly to right. For some unknown reason, Sammy Sosa threw toward the plate, allowing the runner on first to go to second, removing the force play and putting another runner in scoring position.
Oh, well. It just means that the Cubs have to travel to Atlanta to finish off the Braves tomorrow night. I have two predictions: 1) Kerry Wood effectively tells Mark Prior – what you can do, I can do better; and 2) Robert Fick, if he’s allowed to play, will get booed. Loudly. And deservedly. And those of us watching on TV will hear it, because Cubs fans, 
The Tribune’s headline in its recap of Thursday night’s 
After his gem 
As has been noted by the Chicago media, Kerry Wood had a chance to set some strikeout records tonight, and he did. His 9 strikeouts gave him 1000 for his career. He broke Roger Clemens’s record for fewest games to reach that total: Wood did it in 134 games; Clemens in 143; Dwight Gooden in 145; Hideo Nomo in 147. Wood also broke Nomo’s record for fewest innings to reach 1000 strikeouts: Wood did it in 853 innings; Nomo 927.2; Sam McDowell 932.2; Pedro Martinez 933.2.