The Cubs Chronicle

In addition to being busy with work & family, I am working on a new non-Cubs-related project. As such, The Clark & Addison Chronicle, while hopefully not entering hibernation, will be updated more sporadically than it already is. Go Cubs!

The Sporting News’s Ken Rosenthal calls the Dodgers one of his “losers” following the trade deadline. In calling the Marlins one of his winners, Rosenthal writes, “GM Larry Beinfest and Co. were at their feverish, creative best, acquiring a heart-and-soul catcher, Paul Lo Duca, and one of the game’s top setup men, Guillermo Mota, in a deal in which their only significant loss was righthander Brad Penny.” Strange to say that the loss of Hee Seop Choi was not significant when Choi came in to today’s play ranked 20th in the National League in the Equivalent Average.

I think BP’s Joe Sheehan gets the Dodgers-Marlins trade right:

I was, and remain, absolutely astounded over the reaction to what was an excellent deal for the Dodgers. They traded away two players who have already peaked—-Guillermo Mota in ‘03, Paul Lo Duca in ‘01—-who are rapidly becoming expensive, whose perceived value far outstrips their actual value, and whose in-season trends are downward. In exchange, they upgraded their rotation and acquired a young left-handed hitter with monster upside who is already a productive player.

As Sheehan notes, the mainstream media has portrayed this trade as a huge help for the Marlins. I had not realized that was the case until I was driving home from a wedding last night and Karl Ravech closed his interview on ESPN Radio of Theo Epstein by asking him, with the answer clearly implied by the way in which it was asked, if the Marlins were the biggest winners of the trade deadline deals. Ravech’s “question” caused me to do a double-take. The Marlins stayed the same, at best. The Dodgers seemed to me to have done quite well.

The Cubs, now there’s a team that improved. They got rid of their biggest offensive whole (by far), and replaced it with one of the best shortstops in the game.

Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan has some good things to say about the Nomar trade, from the Cubs’ perspective. First, he blasts the Red Sox:

The Red Sox didn’t have to trade Garciaparra to get Mientkiewicz. They could have had him, yesterday or today, for whatever version of Justin Jones haunts the lowest levels of their minors.

The Red Sox downgraded from Garciaparra to Orlando Cabrera, and they threw in a good hitting prospect (Matt Murton) for the privilege. That’s not just a bad trade, it’s an awful one. Cabrera has been one of the worst hitters in MLB this year, and his superior defense has slipped a notch, in part due to a bad back. There’s still a big difference between him and Garciaparra defensively, it’s just dwarfed by the offensive difference between the two.

And in praise of Jim Hendry:

The Red Sox essentially gave their playoff spot to the Cubs. Quite frankly, I have no idea how Jim Hendry pulled it off, but he made a massive upgrade to his lineup without giving up anything more than some his second-tier-—albeit pretty good—-prospects. Given that prospects have less value to the Cubs now that Dusty Baker is their manager, that’s just an excellent use of resources. The Cubs, who had been playing better for a couple of weeks, become the favorite for the NL wild card. That’s very impressive for a team that looked done just before the All-Star break.

The win today made it all the more exciting.

I’m shocked that this happened, despite the many rumors: The Sporting News’s Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cubs have received Nomar Garciaparra in what appears to be complex trade. Gone are (at least ) Alex Gonzalez, Francis Beltran, and Brendan Harris. Garciaparra hasn’t been the 1999-2000 version of himself since, well, 2000. But, man, he’s still quite good, and this is quite exciting.

UPDATE (4:50pm): The trade ultimately involved four teams. The Cubs also traded away lefty pitching prospect Justin Jones, and received Class A outfielder Matt Murton and cash. This means Matt Clement is staying in a Cub uniform, which previously didn’t seem likely if the Cubs truly wanted Garciaparra.

UPDATE II (10:35pm): Everyone is excited. Really excited. Did I mentioned excited? Alex Ciepley has more on Matt Murton, the outfield prospect the Cubs also received, and also notes that Jim Hendry has “done his job, now the guys on the field just have to do theirs.”

UPDATE III (10:50pm): OK, not everyone’s excited. But the fact they’re not excited should only make us Cubs fans more so.

Alex Gonzalez came up in the top of the 8th today with 1 out and runners on 1st and 3rd, with the Cubs down by just one run, 4-3. Tim Worrell was pitching for the mighty Phils. Dusty Baker had Todd Walker and Jose Macias sitting on the bench and didn’t use them. He should have.

Gonzalez is hitting just .239/.259/.404 this year, and has only been back from the DL a short time. He’s historically worse against righties, and he’s a strikeout candidate. Moreoever, lefties are hitting 71 batting average points better against Worrell than righties are this year.

Dusty Baker had already committed to bringing in Ramon Martinez, having used him to pinch-run for Aramis Ramirez. So Martinez could have switched over to short, and Macias could have taken over third.

In the end, Gonzalez grounded into a double play (thanks to a nice play by Phillies second baseman Placido Polanco), and the Cubs lost. But no matter the outcome of Gonzalez’s at-bat, using Walker or Macias to pinch-hit in that situation would have given the Cubs the better chance at victory.

Just to clear up any confusion there may have been, Dusty Baker is quoted in today’s Chicago Tribune (Paul Sullivan, “Baker tells fans: It’s decision time,” 7/23/2004) as saying in response to whether his honeymoon is over with Cubs fans:

“I don’t like honeymoons. Ask my wife. We go to Hawaii every year, but she doesn’t count that as a honeymoon. Counts as a honeymoon to me . . . but I’m not a honeymoon man.”

See? All cleared up. He doesn’t like honeymoons, but when he goes to Hawaii every year he counts that as a honeymoon even though his wife doesn’t (just ask her). But don’t think he’s a honeymoon man. No way.

Several interesting items in the Chicago Tribune today (Paul Sullivan, “Dempster getting primed to be closer,” 7/22/2004):

The Cubs are putting Ryan Dempster in the bullpen at Iowa with the thought that he may be called up in September to be the closer. If Dempster could prove effective, this would help, because it would allow LaTroy Hawkins to be placed back in the often more crucial setup role.

Dusty Baker left Monday night’s game against St. Louis for being ejected. Except he was not ejected.

“Triple-A Iowa shortstop Ricky Gutierrez was traded to Boston for a player to be named.” Whew. He was a little too close to Chicago.

“Third base coach Wendell Kim appears safe for the rest of the year, but there is speculation he could have trouble keeping his job in 2005.” That’s what they said last year.

“Jon Leicester was called up Wednesday while Francis Beltran was demoted to Iowa.” Beltran was too up-and-down to be pitching in crucial situaitons. Hopefully Leicester will maintain the consistency he showed before being sent down when Kerry Wood returned.

Cards have 10 game lead over Cubs (Mike Dodd, USA Today, 7/21/2004)

While their National League Central Division rivals clinched the preseason magazine covers with high-profile free agent signings this winter, the St. Louis Cardinals stayed in the background by quietly reconfiguring their team — without adding payroll.

Look who’s making noise now.

I must say, I do not particularly care for the National League Base Ball Club from St. Louis, Missouri.

Redbird Nation is loving it, and even appropriates the title of this game–The Sandberg Game–by calling today’s game The Pujols Game.

Wendell Kim continues to give away outs. Unfortunately, it appears that the Cubs’ front office failed to have that offseason talk with Dusty Baker about Kim.

In November I mentioned a new book called The Cubs on Catalina by Jim Vitti. Per a press release, The Sporting News has named the book as the best sports book of the year.

Mark “Prior will undergo tests Friday at Northwestern Memorial Hospital,” reports the Chicago Tribune (Paul Sullivan, “Prior reinjures elbow,” 7/16/2004). “If it turns out to be a torn ulnar lateral ligament, the Cubs right-hander could face the prospect of undergoing season-ending reconstructive elbow surgery, and returning next July at the earliest.”

Whatever happens, the guy with perfect mechanics has demonstrated that perfect mechanics does not immunize one from arm problems. This is bad news for the Cubs, and bad news for Prior. Get well soon, Mark.

UPDATE (3:40pm): No damage to Prior’s elbow. “There is absolutely no possibility of ‘Tommy John’ or ligament reconstruction or anything like that,” says Jim Hendry. Further test results are pending.

The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan writes in Thursday’s paper on the “six things the Cubs need to vault over St. Louis and into the [World] Series” (“North Siders need Sosa of old,” 7/15/2004). Six things, and not one about acquiring a new shortstop. Not even one about staying healthy (other than Todd Hollandsworth specifically getting healthy). But among the six things is “more clubhouse chatter” and “less griping” (at umps especially). I’m all for more gripeless chatter, but I would like it to be done by a healthy team with a productive shortstop.

It’s worth looking at the “more clubhouse chatter” suggestion in greater depth. Here’s what Sullivan writes:

Remember the days when players sat by their lockers and talked to each other and to reporters before games? That was before clubhouses were turned into home-entertainment centers. The Cubs 2004 motto: “More sound. Less talk.” On one occasion in June, the clubhouse stereo was playing AC-DC while Sosa’s boombox was playing salsa, creating the mutually assured destruction of everyone’s eardrums with a cacophonous sound no one possibly could enjoy.

The great musical debate would be solved easily if the Cubs resorted to the “headphones-only” rule of Atlanta manager Bobby Cox. Being an old clubhouse disc jockey himself, Baker is unlikely to step in and make a change.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this particular suggestion has a little bit more to do with Mr. Sullivan’s desired working environment than with improving the Cubs. I could be wrong.

I can’t really blame him, though. Trying to work while competing with AC/DC and salsa music has to be a chore.

Wait a second. Scratch that. Mr. Sullivan is the Cubs beat reporter for the Chicago Tribune. That’s not a bad gig.

Baseball Prospectus’s “Triple Play” article was free today, and discusses the Cubs, including how amazingly similar Matt Clement and Roger Clemens have been this season.

The Jimy Williams era is over in Houston, reports the AP (Joel Anderson, 7/14/2004). It didn’t seem to last long. Phil Garner will try to rescue what had looked to be a promising season. Also, The Rat is the Astros’ new hitting coach.

Rumors of the Cubs’ interest in Expos SS Orlando Cabrera have abounded lately, and in Monday’s paper, the Chicago Tribune reports (Paul Sullivan, “Gonzalez’s days may be numbered,” 7/12/2004):

With Alex Gonzalez slated to return from his rehab stint at Triple-A Iowa in another week, the Cubs may be seeking to package him in a deal for another shortstop.

General manager Jim Hendry declined to discuss a report that the Cubs have spoken to Montreal about 29-year-old Orlando Cabrera, who’s hitting .286 in July after a rough start.

The Cubs likely would have to give up a decent pitching prospect along with Gonzalez, who will become a free agent at the end of the year and isn’t in the team’s 2005 plans.

It is not clear to me why anyone should be excited by this, or why the Cubs would have to give up a “decent pitching prospect” to acquire Cabrera. Their 2003 seasons, in which Cabrera had a career year, notwithstanding, the two are remarkably similar players, right down to their salaries.

Cabrera has not been able to carry over his 2003 success (.297/.347/.460) into 2004 (.240/.297/.323). He had a career adjusted OPS coming into this season 8% below league average. Gonzalez was at 11% below average. Both are well above average defensive shortstops; according to Baseball Prospectus, Cabrera was 47 fielding runs above average from 2001-03, Gonzalez 37.

By acquiring Cabrera, and assuming he starts hitting somewhere around his career average (.267/.316/.406), the Cubs gain 20 points of OPS, one-sixth of a win over the course of one-half of a season on defense, and 1.5 years of age. They lose whatever prospect it will take to get him. It might be an upgrade this year, but it is a minor one.