1. Brian Dopirak, 1b
2. Felix Pie, of
3. Ryan Harvey, of
4. Angel Guzman, rhp
5. Billy Petrick, rhp
6. Renyel Pinto, lhp
7. Sean Marshall, lhp
8. John Leicester, rhp
9. Grant Johnson, rhp
10. Jason Dubois, of/1b
Guzman was #1 last year. Shoulder problems have slowed him down.
Callis concludes: “Chicago’s farm system isn’t as strong as it was when it ranked among the game’s top three after the 2000-02 seasons, but it’s still one of baseball’s better collections of talent.”
The New York Yankees announced the signing of 32-year-old minor league veteran infielder Russ Johnson, who played for the Iowa Cubs last year, and who I have suggested would have more appropriately filled the Neifi Perez or Jose Macias role on the Cubs this year.
Despite a rotator cuff injury that slowed his career for most of 2003-04, Cubs minor-leaguer Angel Guzman remains the top prospect in the organization. ‘He’s finally back to where we want him to be,’ Cubs director of player development Oneri Fleita said of Guzman, who went 0-3 with a 5.60 earned-run average in 17 innings last season at double-A West Tennessee but is 28-19 lifetime in the minors with a 2.90 ERA.
One of the reasons the Cubs were willing to give Michael Barrett a three-year contract had to have been that there are no catchers in the Cubs’ minor league system even close to being a major league starter. Part of the problem is the slow developments of the 2003 draft pick catchers—Jake Fox (3rd round) and Tony Richie (4th).
Both catchers were called up to low-A Lansing in their first years of professional ball. Fox, 22, repeated at Lansing last year, hitting a solid but unspectacular .287/.331/.470. He should be the catcher at high-A Dayton or possibly AA West Tennessee next year, but he likely won’t be knocking on the door of a big league job until Barrett’s third year, if at all.
Richie, 22, went down to short season Boise last year and hit .314/.373/.389. He’s hit just 1 home run in 227 minor league at-bats after hitting 13 his final year at Florida State.
I think Dopirak’s power will carry forward easily, but I’m not so sure about his batting average and OBP. He doesn’t have to turn into Rod Carew, but even marginally better strike zone judgment would go a long way towards making him a complete hitter. Despite his weaknesses, he is still one of the top hitting prospects around. He also has a good work ethic, so effort is not a problem. But unless he makes a few adjustments, Dopirak could end up as more of a “dangerous-but-containable” slugger than a complete hitter like Barton. We will know a lot more at this time next year.
Dopirak, 20 years old, hit .307/.363/.593 for Lansing last season. He was the Cubs’ second round pick in the 2002 draft.
This is some interesting reading. Brandon Sing (.279/.399/.571 in 408 AB for High-A Daytona) is not getting a lot of press, but he might just be the best hitting prospect and the most disciplined (84 bb:101 k) in the Cubs' farm system. Sing will probably play baseball for AA West Tennessee in 2005, and if he puts up or betters the kinds of numbers he did this past season, look for organizations that value disciplined hitters, like the A's, to come calling. It's just too bad that Sing will never be of any benefit to the Cubs, other than trade fodder, because the current field manager views players that draw walks as unmanly, even after spending all those years with Barry Bonds.
Via The Cub Reporter is this post by Wait ‘Til Next Year’s Bryan Smith on the Cubs’ minor leaguers and who should be protected on the 40-man roster this winter.
Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll notes in today’s “Under the Knife” column:
The Cubs are excited that Angel Guzman is back at Double-A. While his command is rough, his velocity is already in the low 90s. Coming off labrum surgery, velocity is the biggest concern. If people are looking for patterns, high velocity pitchers seem to have an advantage coming back from arthroscopic labrum surgeries. They can lose some velocity and still have major league stuff.
(Link added.) Guzman has started two games for West Tennessee so far, and has a 4.09 ERA in 11 innings, with a 9/2 K/BB ratio.
The official C&A Chron. wife (and, by that time, the official C&A Chron. baby) are moving in June, so we’ve started to do some packing. In doing so, I came across the July/August edition of Cubs Quarterly, an official Cubs publication. It includes an article on Luis Montanez (Larry Mayer, “Destined to be a Cub"). The Cubs had just drafted Montanez in the 1st round (3rd overall) of the 2000 draft.
How things change.
Mayer writes: “Though Montanez likely will not advance to the major leagues for at least three years, he has the potential to be a star.”
For that first year, that still seemed likely. Montanez was sent to rookie ball in Mesa, where he hit .344 with a .531 Slg.% and a decent number of walks. Since then, he’s been not good and getting worse. A 716 OPS with low-A Lansing in 2001 was followed by a 686 OPS year with high-A Daytona in 2002. Which led the Cubs to keep him at Daytona in 2003. Where he put up a 638 OPS.
Things got so bad last summer that when Double-A West Tennessee needed a shortstop, the Cubs bypassed Montanez for Lansing’s second baseman, Ryan Theriot. Montanez himself ended up playing more second base than shortstop last year, demonstrating that his hitting isn’t the only thing that hasn’t progressed.
The Cubs Quarterly article also noted that “Montanez was ranked the fifth-best player in the draft by Baseball America. The publication reported that scouts “have compared him to Blue Jays shortstop Alex Gonzalez.” Which also shows that Gonzalez hasn’t turned out like it was once thought he would. Still, at this point, a Gonzalez-like career for Montanez may be too much to hope for.
Rooftop Report links to a compilation of top prospects lists, and lists Cubs in the top 599 prospects in baseball. Angel Guzman, to no surprise, is the top Cub at #37 (and would likely be higher if he had been injury-free).
Looking at the bottom of the list, we see outfielder Nic Jackson. At #585. In other words, Jackson’s prospects aren’t good. 2004 is going to be an important year for Jackson.
As everyone knows, the Cubs have little in the way of position prospects. Jackson is one of the few who conceivably counts as a legitimate prospect. He at least counts in the eyes of the Cubs brass. As the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan wrote in today’s paper, “[Jim] Hendry believes up-and-coming outfield prospects Jason Dubois and Nic Jackson, second baseman Brendan Harris and pitchers like [Sergio] Mitre, [Todd] Wellemeyer and Angel Guzman will keep the farm system pipeline running smoothly for years to come.” Jackson’s name is mentioned among the best prospects the Cubs have to offer in the high minors.
Jackson is in the big league spring training camp this spring, and MLB.com recently quoted him as saying, “Everybody wants to make the team. . . . I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’ll just wait and see like everybody else.” As much as Jackson would like to make the team this year, the days of Jackson playing in Wrigley Field have not yet arrived. Even if a position player roster spot was open, which there isn’t, Jackson needs to play everyday instead of sitting on the bench in Chicago. And how Jackson, who is 24, fairs at Iowa this year will tell the Cubs a lot about Jackson’s ability to help the big league club in the future.
The Cubs drafted Jackson in the 3rd round of the 2000 draft. In 2001, as a 21-year-old, he was a Florida State League All-Star with high-A Dayton, hitting .296/.355/.493, including 19 homers and 24 stolen bases. Despite an injury-riddled 2002 season with West Tennessee, the Cubs promoted him to Iowa for the entirety of 2003. Unfortunately, he hit only .253/.315/.384, with a 102/35 K/BB ratio.
Jackson is a tools guy, and he simply looks like a ballplayer. That is no doubt a significant reason why the Cubs (and many Cubs fans) have been so high on him for the past few years (not Corey Patterson high, but high). But the tools must translate into production. Given his minor league production, it’s unreasonable to expect Jackson to develop into a major league star. But he needs to play well at Iowa this year to provide evidence that he’ll be a servicable major league outfielder, and not another Scott Bullett or Terrell Lowery.
According to the AP, the Cubs have signed Greg Maddux to a 3 year deal for $24M. The third year is voidable if Maddux doesn’t pitch a certain number of innings in 2005. No word on how many innings that has to be.
In other Cubs news, the Chicago Tribune reports today that three minor leaguers have suffered serious leg injuries. Shortstop Nate Frese broke his leg in a farm accident and will be out for the year. Pitcher John Webb broke his leg chasing his dog. And most significantly, projected 2005 second baseman Brendan Harris woke up with a sore knee and is now set to have knee surgery that will keep him out up to 12 weeks.
Bryan Stroh, formerly of Bryan’s Baseball Banter, returns with his list of top Cubs prospects over at The Cub Reporter. Nos. 21.-30. today, plus some honorable mentions.
Speaking of Mr. Pie, his team is still going. Eric S provided a playoff update in the comments section of the previous post. And the Lugnuts won Game 2 of the best-of-five Midwest League Series last night. They’re now 6-0 in the playoffs. Felix Pie has been hitting lights out. Anyone around Beloit, Wisconsin might want to check out Game 3 tonight.
The Cubs’ low Single-A affiliate Lansing came to Cedar Rapids Monday night for the only time this year to take on the Kernels (an Angels affiliate), so I drove up and watched on a 95 degree night in Iowa.
I got lucky because Andy Sisco, one of the Cubs’ top pitching prospects, was on the mound for the Lugnuts. Sisco is a tall lefty, and he was good, though not great. The scoreboard radar reading consistently had him throwing 90-91 mph, and he changed speeds enough that the Kernels were often late on that fastball. But they were still able to hit Sisco. He finished the night after having thrown just 5 innings, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits (2 doubles, 7 singles), walking 1 and striking out 7.
The Kernels also put a lefty on the hill – Micah Posey. Posey fits more into the soft-tossing lefty mold (as opposed to Sisco, the big, hard thrower), and he did a decent job of keeping the Lugnuts off-balance, allowing 1 run before also leaving after 5 innings. (Of course, Lansing is a poor hitting team – 13th out of 14 Midwest League teams in runs scored. In many ways, they mirror their parent club. While they can’t hit very well, they are second in the league in ERA, and as a result, have a .500 record.)
Lansing was able to get to the CR bullpen, though. They tied the score at 3 in the top of the 6th with three straight hits from the bottom of the order – a double by Robinson Chirinos and singles by both J.J. Johnson (who’s had a terrible year, but looks like a baseball player, so will probably be given more chances) and Keith Butler. Then, first baseman Casey McGehee and catcher Jake Fox each hit solo homers in the top of the 7th to put Lansing up 5-3. McGehee’s was a line shot to left and Fox’s was a real blast way over the leftfield wall. Both McGehee and Fox were 2003 draft picks of the Cubs, Fox in the third round and McGehee in the 10th.
Unfortunately, the Lansing bullpen was just as shaky as the Cedar Rapids bullpen. While Frederico Baez (3.25 ERA in 63.2 IP coming in) didn’t allow anyone to score, he gave up hits to 4 of the 7 batters he faced, and one of the outs was a laser beam (hopefully Chip Caray won’t mind if I borrow that phrase) to left. Lefty Clayton Rapada (5.08 ERA in 39 IP) saved Baez in the 7th, but Adelberto Mendez (3.52 ERA in 7.2 IP) came on in the 8th and allowed the Kernels to tie the score at 5.
The Kernels had a runner on first with two outs when the rain and lightning came and the umpire (singular used for a reason, noted below) stopped play.
A few other notes from the game and from researching for this post:
I’m still not sure what exactly happened, but in the middle of the 7th, the home plate umpire had to leave the game. We heard reports of both heat exhaustion and of him being hit by a baseball during warm-ups. There was a 20 minute delay. Eventually, the base umpire came out to call balls-and-strikes, and he had one coach from each team act as base umpires. The Kernels coach had to make a close call at first that went against his own team, but he made the right call, and it wasn’t close enough that his team would be disappointed with him.
Lugnuts 18-year-old centerfielder Felix Pie (.282/.343/.372 in 478 at-bats) (he doesn’t turn 19 until February) hit an absolute rope against the rightfield wall for a double. There’s also little doubt about the speed he possesses.
Shortstop Buck Coats (.279/.366./364 in 456 at-bats) hit second in the lineup. He easily leads the team with 60 walks on the season, though he didn’t distinguish himself tonight. Also, he has 49 errors in 115 games at short this year. When I was in little league, we’d watch the opposing team take infield, looking for weak links. I think opposing teams do that with Coats.
Jake Fox is easily winning the battle of the early-round draft pick catchers. Both he and Tony Richie (4th round) are with Lansing. Coming into Monday night, Fox was hitting .240/.318/.440 in 75 at-bats. Richie was hitting .175/.266/.211 in 57 at-bats.
Finally, let’s end on a note about the Kernels: In the game, Kernels shortstop Alberto Callaspo (.330/.380/.432 in 491 at-bats), a 5′10″ 150 lb. cleanup hitter who went 3-4, broke the all-time Cedar Rapids baseball record for hits in a season with 163 (his 2nd and 3rd hits brought him to 165). Impressive given that baseball has been in Cedar Rapids for much of the past century. Congratulations Mr. Callaspo.
Looking at the bottom of the list, we see outfielder 
The Cubs’ low Single-A affiliate Lansing came to Cedar Rapids Monday night for the only time this year to take on the Kernels (an Angels affiliate), so I drove up and watched on a 95 degree night in Iowa.