The Cubs Chronicle

MLB.com Radio just announced that Ryne Sandberg has been elected to the Hall of Fame. He received 76% of the vote.

The Chicago Sun-Times runs a column in today’s paper by White Sox fan Dale Bowman arguing that Ryne Sandberg is not a Hall-of-Famer because 1) his uniform didn’t get consistently dirty enough; and 2) he never won a World Series. Seriously, that’s the case Mr. Bowman makes against Sandberg. And Another Thing! and Cubs Pundit have already exposed this silliness.

But all you need to know in deciding whether to take Mr. Bowman’s analysis seriously is this: 1) he ignores Sandberg’s offense (by calling Sandberg’s having the second most homers by a second baseman ever a “worthless stat"); 2) he compares Sandberg’s defense to other great fielding second basemen by looking at total chances, an incomplete measure if there ever was one; and 3) in comparing Sandberg’s glove to other second basemen, he calls Jackie Robinson and Nellie Fox the two best of the modern era, completely neglecting Bill Mazeroski, who, according to advanced metrics, saved more runs with his glove than any player in history not named Ozzie Smith.

Ignore Mr. Bowman. As FOXSports.com’s Kevin Hench writes about Sandberg, “vote this guy into the Hall of Fame already.” The results are in on Tuesday.

Jay Jaffe on Ryne Sandberg and the Hall of Fame, at Baseball Prospectus:

An excellent all-around second baseman, Sandberg combined power, speed . . . and glovework. . . . He’s rated seventh all-time among second basemen in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. Is there an argument that Sandberg doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame?

If there’s a case to be made against Sandberg, it starts with how Wrigley Field inflated his stats.
. . . .
[Still,] Sandberg . . . [is] solidly above [the average Cooperstown second-sacker] by both career and peak measures. Were he elected, he would rank seventh among 17 Hall second basemen, with Charlie Gehringer and Rod Carew replacing the still-active Craig Biggio and the historically pivotal (but late-arriving and thus lower-scoring) Robinson from the list above. Even once Roberto Alomar . . . and [Craig] Biggio . . . become eligible, Sandberg would place in the upper half of all Hall second basemen. He’s most definitely worth a spot on the ballot and a plaque in upstate New York.

By Michael Caldwell

This is some interesting reading. Brandon Sing (.279/.399/.571 in 408 AB for High-A Daytona) is not getting a lot of press, but he might just be the best hitting prospect and the most disciplined (84 bb:101 k) in the Cubs' farm system. Sing will probably play baseball for AA West Tennessee in 2005, and if he puts up or betters the kinds of numbers he did this past season, look for organizations that value disciplined hitters, like the A's, to come calling. It's just too bad that Sing will never be of any benefit to the Cubs, other than trade fodder, because the current field manager views players that draw walks as unmanly, even after spending all those years with Barry Bonds.

It’s hard to get more conflicting than this. Here’s Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan on the Cubs’ signing of Glendon Rusch to a two-year deal (sub. for BP link req’d):

A signing I like a lot more [than the Mets’ signing of Kris Benson] is the Cubs locking up Glendon Rusch for two years.

Rusch has become devastating to baserunners, the new Terry Mulholland. He’s allowed three stolen bases in 18 attempts over the last three seasons. I think he can be a mid-level left-hander for the next couple of seasons, on par with Al Leiter and maybe approaching the better years of David Wells and Jamie Moyer.

And here’s ‘Studes’ at The Hardball Times:

Remember how Rusch signed that $7.3 million two-year contract in February of 2002 with the Brewers? He went on to compile a cumulative -35 RSAA in the next two years, which means that the Brewers essentially got nothing for their money. That was one gamble that really didn’t work.
. . . .
Glendon Rusch has always been one of the poster boys for high line drive rates, and 2004 was no different. The big improvement he made was in his walk rate, which plummeted to 2.3 a game, vs. 3.3 the previous two years. He also managed to keep his home run rate under control, which was quite a feat considering he pitched in one of the best home run parks in 2004.

As you know from the salary chart, a $2 million signing is appropriate for a 4.25 ERA given 200 innings pitched. Based on his history, I don’t believe that Rusch will match either figure in either year of his contract. A smaller gamble by the Cubs, but one just as unlikely to pay off, in my opinion.

Sheehan’s prediction of Moyer-level performance seems quite high to me. Moyer has had 5 seasons as a full-time starter with an ERA greater than 25% better than the league average. Rusch last year was at 31% greater than league average, but he did it in 130 innings, and that was much higher than his previous career best of 9% greater in 2000.

Assuming the Cubs use Rusch in a similar manner as last year, it’s unlikely Rusch will ever approach the innings necessary to match a Moyer-like or Wells-like performance, and if he did approach that number of innings as a full-time starter, I think the most we could expect would be league average performance. Which would be just fine for a 5th starter.

Big Red C has an indepth look at Derreck Lee’s 2004 performance, which was good but not quite what was expected, almost completely due to a drop in his walk rate (and which may be attributable to the current field manager).

I hate articles like this. The Chicago Tribune “reports” (Bob Foltman, “Cards’ Renteria ‘total package’,” 10/7/2004) that Tony LaRussa “might” be watching Edgar Renteria’s last game in a Cardinals uniform soon, as Renteria will be a free agent, and Cubs GM Jim Hendry “might” be interested in signing Renteria if he doesn’t re-sign Nomar Garciaparra.

The “support” for Hendry’s interest is this one statement in the article: “General manager Jim Hendry was in the Florida organization when it signed Renteria in 1992, and he long has admired the Colombian-born shortstop.”

This a news article with no news. Something like this is much better written as a column by an opinion columnist who can argue why or why not the Cubs should sign Renteria. (I don’t mean to blame Mr. Foltman, the staff reporter who wrote the article. His writing is certainly fine enough—though in lauding Renteria’s abilities, he misses that Renteria was only a league average offensive shortstop this year (.251 EqA v. .249 for all shortstops), certainly not the stuff of $10M/yr—and he was likely assigned to write the article.)

In any event, Renteria is better than Neifi Perez. The Chicago Sun-Times reported yesterday (Mike Kiley, “No waiting till next year,” 10/5/2004) that “Glendon Rusch and backup shortstop/second baseman Neifi Perez, both pickups from the junkpile, are the top unsigned players that Hendry will seek to retain.” Kiley has Perez taking over Ramon Martinez’s backup role, but still, Hendry appears to be confused. An out-of-the-blue 948 OPS in a month’s worth of play for the Cubs cannot mask a career of Neifierrific-ness (he couldn’t even get on base on Colorado). Perez had a lifetime OPS 18.5% below league average coming into this year, and he promptly put up an OPS this year with the Giants (571) more than 100 points worse than his career average, prior to his acquisition by the Cubs.

Russ Johnson hit .294/.394/.496 for Iowa this year, and has a career .349 OBA. in the majors in over 900 career plate appearances. Could he fill the utility infielder role better than either Martinez or Perez? It would depend in large part on his ability to play a good defensive shortstop, a position he’s only played minimally in his career. If he can’t play shortstop well, there has to be a number of other Russ Johnsons in Triple-A that would be better options than either Martinez or Perez.

When the Cubs acquired Mark Grudzielanek before the 2003 season, along with Eric Karros, in exchange for Todd Hundley, I thought the Cubs had received an OK backup to Bobby Hill for one season, while getting rid of the two years left on Hundley’s contract. Then the speculation began during spring training 2003 that Hill, after getting off to a poor start in the spring, would not be the starter after all.

I wrote on March 16, 2003:

Hill wasn’t great with the Cubs last year (86+ in 59 games), but he had a .382 OBP% at Iowa last year, and a .396 OBP% at Double-A West Tennessee the year before. Plus, he’s 25 years old this year. It’s time for him to play. 37 under-performing at-bats in spring training shouldn’t change that.

Hill continued to struggle, and the talk began in earnest that Hill wouldn’t even make the team. I wrote on March 24, 2003: “The main alternative–Mark Grudzielanek–has battled sprained ankles all spring and thus only has 11 at-bats (he’s 1 for 11).” By the end of the day March 24, Bobby Hill was sick, and Grudzielanek started his third straight game of the spring.

In the March 26 morning papers, it was reported that the Cubs would send Hill to Iowa. Grudzielanek would be the starter, and also take Hill’s presumed job as leadoff hitter. I was not happy:

I really hope [Jim] Hendry is just being nice with that “Grudzielanek is a pretty good hitter career-wise” comment. Grudzielanek has had only one season in which he’s posted a league average OPS and that was four years ago. His career OPS is 6.5% below league average. Not terrible for a middle infielder, especially if you make him your back-up, but certainly not “pretty good."With Grudzielanek hitting leadoff and Alex Gonzalez hitting second, Baseball Prospectus projects the two hitters setting the table for Sosa, Alou, and Choi this year to have on-base-percentages of .292 and .304, respectively. Ouch.

Though I thought Hill would be back up soon.

I had reason to prefer the hope of Hill rather than the sureness of Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek’s EqA the previous three seasons had been .255, .251, and an unequivocally subpar .241 the previous season, 2002. He had only had an above average EqA twice in his career, the last time being in 1999 with the Dodgers. Additionally, he was not more than an average defensive player, mostly due to range issues.

As you know, Grudzielanek went on to play much of the year at second for the Cubs, and quite well. He finished with a .275 EqA, and was about the 7th best offensive second baseman in the NL in 2003. While not great, that performance was certainly more than expected.

Then during this past offseason, the Cubs had Todd Walker fall into their laps, setting up a good platoon situation (though Grudzielanek’s injury during the first-half of the season, and Dusty Baker’s lineup construction in the second half has prevented employment of the platoon). Even then, though, I openly speculated whether Brendan Harris might be the better platoon partner with Walker. Grudzielanek, however, has gone on to post another respectable EqA this year, .266, so far.

Grudzielanek was never, and will never be, a great player, or even a really good one. But he has done much more than I thought he would as a Cub. He has played respectable major league baseball.

Bobby Hill? A decent year at Iowa (.288/.365/.424) helped the Cubs turn him into Aramis Ramirez. Nice. This year, Hill – now 26 years old – has hit .267/.349/.335 for Pittsburgh in a part-time role, good for just a .237 EqA, making Cubs fans appreciate Grudzielanek that much more.

These ‘pens are mightier (Jacob Luft, SI.com, 5/25/2004)

SI.com’s Jacob Luft on teams, including the Cubs, that are using their best relief pitchers in the setup role rather than the closer role:

Conventional wisdom states the better pitcher should be the closer. He should have the fat contract, the heavy metal intro song and be doused with gold, frankincense and myrrh, right?

Nope.

Whether they planned it this way or not, the Astros have the ideal situation with the back end of their bullpen: two ace relievers, with the more dominant one as the setup man. This allows manager Jimy Williams to bring in Lidge when he needs him most, the seventh- or eighth-inning jam with runners on base and a lead to protect. Then Dotel can come in with a clean slate in the ninth to pad his all-important save totals.

The Astros aren’t alone in their good fortune. Here are some other teams that use their best pitchers in the high-leverage situations instead of anointing them the “closer” and letting them gobble up easy saves:
. . . .
Chicago Cubs Closer: Joe Borowski Ace reliever: LaTroy Hawkins Comment: At least the Cubs have the salaries right: Hawkins makes $2.7 million compared to Borowski’s $2 million salary. Hawkins has been well worth it, posting a 0.72 WHIP and .150 batting-average against.

Of course, after last night’s game one performance – “[the] wors[t] closing performance since [Scott Lange] walked five straight batters to blow the softball game Tuesday” – Borowski’s ERA now stands at 8.20 in 18.2 innings. Dusty Baker may be forced to elevate someone else to the closer’s role soon. Hopefully Hawkins isn’t demoted from the setup role, though, where he’s more valuable (despite his game two performance last night).

One of Borowski’s problems has been the huge increase in his walk rate. 15 walks in 18.2 innings this year. Control had been a key part of his success in 2002-03. Note that I predicted an increased walk rate when news of his loss in velocity was first reported back in March:

Borowski throws two pitches – a fastball and a slider. He doesn’t have a sinker or changeup that would allow him to be effective (or at least as effective as he has been) without a low 90s fastball. Additionally, he already lives by painting corners. A slowdown in his velocity may lead him to try to paint the corners even more, meaning an increased walk rate.

While we’re looking for Borowski’s missing velocity, be on the lookout for Derrek Lee’s power.

The official C&A Chron. wife (and, by that time, the official C&A Chron. baby) are moving in June, so we’ve started to do some packing. In doing so, I came across the July/August edition of Cubs Quarterly, an official Cubs publication. It includes an article on Luis Montanez (Larry Mayer, “Destined to be a Cub"). The Cubs had just drafted Montanez in the 1st round (3rd overall) of the 2000 draft.

How things change.

Mayer writes: “Though Montanez likely will not advance to the major leagues for at least three years, he has the potential to be a star.”

For that first year, that still seemed likely. Montanez was sent to rookie ball in Mesa, where he hit .344 with a .531 Slg.% and a decent number of walks. Since then, he’s been not good and getting worse. A 716 OPS with low-A Lansing in 2001 was followed by a 686 OPS year with high-A Daytona in 2002. Which led the Cubs to keep him at Daytona in 2003. Where he put up a 638 OPS.

Things got so bad last summer that when Double-A West Tennessee needed a shortstop, the Cubs bypassed Montanez for Lansing’s second baseman, Ryan Theriot. Montanez himself ended up playing more second base than shortstop last year, demonstrating that his hitting isn’t the only thing that hasn’t progressed.

The Cubs Quarterly article also noted that “Montanez was ranked the fifth-best player in the draft by Baseball America. The publication reported that scouts “have compared him to Blue Jays shortstop Alex Gonzalez.” Which also shows that Gonzalez hasn’t turned out like it was once thought he would. Still, at this point, a Gonzalez-like career for Montanez may be too much to hope for.

Both The Cub Reporter and The Big Red C discuss the reports in today’s Sun-Times and Daily Herald that Mike Wuertz may make the club as the 12th pitcher. (For those that don’t know, Wuertz has been a below average to plain bad minor leaguer who’s having a good spring.) But at the same time, Jimmy Anderson is trying to make the case that he should be the 5th starter instead of Sergio Mitre. Anderson came into today’s game with a 2.76 spring ERA in 16.1 innings. He threw 5 innings of no earned run baseball in the start today, striking out just 1, but also allowing just 3 hits. This at a time when Mitre is struggling.

I’ve (briefly) panned Anderson before (see here and here). He’s 28 with a lifetime ERA 19% below league average in 559 big league innings, and as many career walks as strikeouts. He’s Shawn Estes, only not as “good” and without the aberration that was Estes’s 1997 season.

If the Cubs do carry a 12th pitcher, either Wuertz or Anderson could make the team. But with just one open spot on the 40-man roster, only one of them can. The Cubs don’t have many days left in which to decide.

As Cubs Now! notes, Scott McClain hit his sixth homer of the spring yesterday. He’s now at .357/.387/1.107. (See earlier post.) Barring an injury to Aramis Ramirez or Derrek Lee, McClain is unlikely to make the team, but he’s got to be having a blast right now, and hopefully will catch on somewhere.

After going 1-2 with a homer today, his fifth of the spring, third baseman Scott McClain has the following line with the Cubs this spring in 30 plate appearances: .333/.367/1.000. Nice. So who in the world is Scott McClain, you ask? MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat profiled him a couple of weeks ago.

I remain disappointed with the way things turned out for Roosevelt Brown in Chicago. He toyed with Triple-A pitching, but was given too few opportunities to succeed under former manager Don Baylor. On the other hand, he was given 204 at-bats in 2002, and put up a disappointing .211/.299/.314 line.

Without a place for him in the 2003 team, Roosevelt Brown left Chicago and headed for Japan. It appears to have worked out for him. The Baseball Guru has a page listing the 2003 Japanese baseball leaders. Brown, playing for Orix of the Pacific League, finished 9th in the league in RBI’s, 10th in bases on balls, 7th in stolen bases, and 10th in OBP%. Brown also hit 28 home runs and finished with a .307/.392/.539 line. Alas, Orix finished in last place with a record of 48-88, 33.5 games out of first. Orix’s 5.94 ERA, a full run higher than any other team in either the Pacific or Central Leagues, might have had something to do with that.

I haven’t heard about Brown being in a big league camp this spring, so it’s likely that he’ll be playing in Japan again in 2004. I think it probable that a Brown, David Kelton platoon in left in 2004 would have greater production than Moises Alou, and for much less money.

The Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal in his latest “Inside Pitch” column:

Cubs Class AAA RHP Francis Beltran was a revelation pitching for Licey in his native Dominican Republic, going from unreliable middle reliever to closer, ahead of Giants RHP Felix Rodriguez and Dodgers RHP Guillermo Mota. “He’s come up with a split-fingered fastball from hell,” one scout says. “From what I saw, I don’t know how you can keep him off their team.” Beltran, 24, was shut down at Class AAA last July because of biceps tendinitis, but he is expected to compete for a spot in the bullpen – there will be one or two openings, depending on whether the Cubs sign free-agent RHP Greg Maddux. Beltran throws 95 to 98 mph, and the Cubs project him as a closer in the future. . . .

Of course, unless the Cubs forego having the 6th relief pitcher a long reliever, Beltran has no chance to make the team barring injury.

Related post:
Francis Beltran Helps Dominican Republic Win Caribbean Series