The Cubs Chronicle

The AP reports:

The Chicago Cubs were close to agreement on a trade to send unhappy slugger Sammy Sosa to the Baltimore Orioles, several high-ranking baseball officials told The Associated Press.

Medical tests and approval from commissioner Bud Selig and the players’ association remain unresolved, the officials said Friday night, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The Cubs would pay a substantial part of Sosa’s $17 million salary this season, the executives said. Sosa would agree to void his salary in 2006, they also said.

In exchange, Chicago would receive second baseman Jerry Hairston Jr. and at least two prospects.

Those better be some pretty good prospects.

UPDATE (11:25pm): Questions that immediately pop to mind: If the Cubs do in fact trade Sosa, does that mean they’ve checked out Magglio Ordonez’s knee and are sufficiently satisfied to consider paying what he appears to be asking for? And if Hairston comes to the Cubs, how long before Dusty Baker starts reducing Todd Walker’s at-bats, given that Hairston has the speed advantage?

UPDATE II (11:45pm): Baseball Musings concurs about how good the prospects need to be for this to work for the Cubs.

UPDATE III (1/29/05 12:05pm): Northside Lounge has analysis of the trade, including a look at the rumored prospects involved—minor league pitcher David Crouthers and minor league second baseman Mike Fontenot. They aren’t much to get excited about.

UPDATE IV (1/29/05 12:15pm): Derek Smart at The Cub Reporter considers the possibility that the two prospects will immediately be traded elsewhere. He also likes the idea of Hairston hitting leadoff. I’m less open to the idea. While Hairston did post a .378 OBA last year, his career OBA is at .334, right around league average. And given his lack of power, I have a difficult time envisioning Hairston putting up better production in left than a Hollandsworth/Dubois platoon.

Mike Kiley reports in the Chicago Sun-Times that the Cubs “privately . . . realize their chances to sign free-agent center fielder Carlos Beltran are dimming by the minute and almost completely extinguished” because “Beltran has to decide before Jan. 8 whether to remain in Houston or jump to the New York Yankees.” January 8 is the day his negotiating window with the Astros ends. The Cubs likely will not have traded Sammy Sosa by then, if at all.

Of course, if the Cubs really wanted Beltran, they’d increase the budget for the one year Sosa and Beltran are on the team together and/or severely backload Beltran’s contract so that the 2005 budget is barely affected.

The story this offseason has been that if the Cubs want to sign Carlos Beltran—which they’ve indicated they do—they must trade Sammy Sosa first. In order to make that happen, the Cubs have held discussions with a number of teams, most notably the New York Mets (with the Mets’ interest disappearing and then possibly reappearing again).

Well, perhaps the Mets have decided to forego trading for Sosa and just go after Beltran himself. The AP quotes Beltran as saying recently, “The Mets have been very aggressive. So far, they haven’t made any offers. I think we’ll have a meeting very soon to talk personally.”

The New York Daily News reported today (Adam Rubin, “Waiting game on Sammy,”) that “Sammy Sosa renewed his vows with wife Sonia yesterday in the Dominican Republic. Mets GM Omar Minaya attended the religious service, and appears to be renewing his efforts to obtain the slugger.” The only source–anonymous–quoted in the article, however, merely states that a trade for Sosa “is on the radar,” but “it’s not any closer” than it was previously.

Paul Sulllivan reports in Sunday’s Chicago Tribune that the Cubs “are likely to lose minor-league left-hander Andy Sisco to Kansas City with the second pick of the Rule 5 draft.” (1060west first brought to that the Cubs had left Sisco unprotected.) Even if the Royals – or another team – pick up Sisco in the Rule V draft, however, it seems unlikely that a guy who put up a 4.21 ERA in high-A ball last year will make the team out of spring training, let alone stick with the team for the entire year. I assume the Cubs will eventually get him back.

Contrary to what NBCSports.com has a Cubs official saying, the Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal reports that the “Cubs are growing increasingly confident that they will attract suitors for right fielder Sammy Sosa other than the Mets. The Braves and Orioles are teams that could pursue Sosa if they fail to address their outfield needs.” It sure would be nice to know what levels these various officials with differing opinions are that are providing information to the media.

NBCSports.com reports that the teams that could sign Carlos Beltran are down to the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees. The report states that the Houston Chronicle has quoted a Cubs official as saying, “We’d have to trade Sosa first, but that’s doubtful right now.”

The Chicago Sun-Times reports today that “Cubs general manager Jim Hendry will meet in the next few days with Milwaukee Brewers counterpart Doug Melvin to discuss what it would take for the Brewers to part with closer Dan Kolb.” The Sun-Times also states that Kyle Farnsworth would likely be included in any trade for Kolb. (The interest in Kolb stems back at least a couple of weeks now.)

Whether the Cubs acquire Kolb or not, it appears likely the Cubs will trade Farnsworth to someone this offseason. Farnsworth rumors have been as rampant as Sosa trade rumors, without the national attention. Farnsworth is undoubtedly talented, but his inconsistency and his apparently not having the right attitude appear to have left him unwanted in Chicago.

If the Cubs do end up trading Farnsworth for another reliever, it will tell us at least three things.

First, Glendon Rusch—recently signed to a two-year contract—will be the 5th starter. The Cubs already have LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Remlinger, and Ryan Dempster slated for the bullpen in 2005. Todd Wellemeyer and Jon Leicester (leading the league in silent letters) will also likely be given spots in the bullpen. Add in Kolb and you have 6 relievers. And that’s even without a lefty specialist. The same Sun-Times article speculates that role could fall to Will Ohman, currently performing well in the Mexican League. 6 relievers (with Ohman possibly replacing Wellemeyer or Leicester in the pen) means no room for Rusch, which means he’s starting.

Second, Sergio Mitre, who struggled for the big league club last year, but who has been a very good minor league starter for four straight seasons at four different levels, appears to be headed to Iowa again. With Rusch out of the swingman role, Mitre could be the starter called up should one of the five starters go down with an injury.

Finally, it will mean that the Cubs will lose the player with the best nickname on the team.

In the same Sun-Times article by Chris De Luca linked below, there was this paragraph:

Though team officials like his bat, Todd Walker’s glove remains a concern at second base, and the team is leaning toward letting Walker leave via free agency, perhaps to an American League team that could use him as a designated hitter. Ex-Cub Tony Womack, who could be the leadoff hitter, remains at the top of the Cubs’ wish list.

For this to be smart, Womack’s defense has to be vastly superior to Walker’s, because there is a big difference in their offensive output. Walker has a career .347 OBA (.352 last year). Womack has reached that number in a season just once, last year’s out-of-the-blue .349.

Walker has a career .437 SLG. (.468 last year). Womack’s career high in a season is .385.

The problem is that Womack is not much of a better fielder. Walker has consistently been 3 or 4 runs below average as a fielder during his career, according to Baseball Prospectus. In the three seasons in which Womack has played a full season at second base, his fielding runs above average have been -17, 18, and -14 (last year). The 18 look like an aberration. In all other seasons, he has been below average.

Walker is also three years younger than Womack. Let’s hope De Luca’s sources are wrong.

As guessed, it didn’t take long at all for speculation to begin that the Cubs would seek to trade for Ugueth Urbina. From a report by Chris De Luca in today’s Chicago Sun-Times:

The top priority in acquiring a player is finding a closer. Percival was tops on their list – until he signed with the Tigers. Armando Benitez, already courted by the Indians, could be a backup option, though the Cubs are expected to pursue a trade with the Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina.

In yesterday’s column, the Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers wrote that “[Scott] Boras hopes teams will not assume [Carlos] Beltran is on his way to joining Rodriguez and Jeter with the Yankees. The Cubs, Los Angeles and Anaheim are among the other teams expected to join the pursuit.”

Then, last night Peter Gammons reported on ESPN, according to A Cub Fan Rants, that “Beltran does not want to go to New York, or the East Coast for that matter, and is in fact eyeing Wrigley Field.”

Color me skeptical. Perhaps Beltran really would like to play for the Cubs, but there’s a reasonable chance that Gammons’s report is based on a seed thrown his way by Boras in order to help ensure that the Cubs will remain serious players for Beltran, and thus drive his price higher.

On Monday, Sosa’s agent—Andy Katz—told ESPN’s Peter Gammons that Sosa would probably stay a Cub. Yesterday, the Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal gave the lowdown on the financial obstacles to trading Sosa (he would likely waive his no trade clause and stipulations that guarantee him additional money, but would want a 2-year extension in return). (Tip via Michael C.) Today, the Sun-Times‘ Toni Ginnetti reported that Jim Hendry “repeated Tuesday that he doesn’t expect Sosa to change uniforms.”

Now, in Thurday’s Tribune, Phil Rogers paints a picture of Sosa almost certainly leaving in a trade with the Mets. Of course, Rogers then concludes his column with this it might happen unless it might not statement:

In Cliff Floyd and perhaps Mike Piazza, they have bargaining chips that match up well with the Cubs. The key is whether [GM Omar] Minaya and [scout Sandy] Johnson still believe in Sosa.

If they do Sosa will be in New York next year. If they don’t he will stay in Chicago. Seldom are these deals this simple.

Rogers also informs us that the Rangers definitely offered Chan Ho Park to the Cubs for Sosa. Hendry declined the offer.

Chan Ho Park! For the greatest player in the history of the Chicago Cubs?!¹ Look, we all know Sosa has been in a yearly decline, but are the Rangers crazy? Sosa’s still good. Chan Ho (how I wish I could keep the ball in the) Park is bad. Very bad. 22 homers in 95 innings last year bad. Just because both players are overpaid, doesn’t mean it’s smart to go around trading them straight up for one another.

The only way Park for Sosa is a good trade from the Cubs’ perspective is if you subscribe to the view that Sosa so taints the clubhouse that not only does he prevent Kerry Wood from being able to throw a fastball for a strike, but he makes the cheese on the clubhouse spread turn green. I know there are those who read this site that hold such a view. I don’t. And even if I did, it would be preferable to eat Sosa’s contract than take on Park’s.

All of which is to say, well done, Mr. Hendry, for politely declining Texas’s crazy offer.

¹It is at this point that someone will stand athwart history and yell, “Stop! Ernie Banks is the greatest player to ever where a Cubs uniform!” I sympathize. I’d like to say that Banks is the greatest Cub. He is after all Mr. Cub, and will forever be. But Sosa is the best.

The biggest mystery surrounding the Cubs right now is who broke Sammy Sosa’s boombox. 1060West thinks it has a scoop: it was Mark Prior. Kerry Wood says he didn’t do it, reports the Tribune’s Fred Mitchell. Me? I think it was Paul Sullivan. But if it was Prior, it’s just one more example of how this is no longer Sosa’s team; it’s Prior’s.

Carlos Beltran, playoff hitter extraordinary, will be a free agent this offseason. The Yankees, of course, have been rumored to be interested, as they seemingly are with every high profile player. However, the New York Daily News‘ Bill Madden doesn’t think the Yankees will be serious players, for the following reasons:

But even at that, part of the problem for the Yankees (assuming you believe Steinbrenner considers a payroll of $200 million to be a problem) is two of Boras’ fading other clients, Brown ($15 mil) and Bernie Williams ($15.5 mil) are responsible for a sizeable chunk of the payroll in the final years of their contracts. Add in, with Williams, the $11 million Giambi is owed for next year and the $3.1 mil for Kenny Lofton (who will be difficult to move at that price) and that’s $39 million in center fielders and designated hitters alone, two of whom would have to be on the bench if Beltran were signed to play center field.

If this really does dissuade the Yankees, and the Cubs are interested in signing Beltran, removing the Yankees as an option could help keep the price reasonable.

(Article tip via reader Michael C.)

Could it happen? Could Wendell Kim finally be replaced as third base coach? Northside Lounge has the details on a possible scenario. But there’s been so much talk before . . . .