First: “If you want to know the deeper reason why Sammy Sosa no longer will be with us, it’s because he loved himself to death.”
Sosa’s displays of selfishness, much more than his decline in performance, turned him into someone that was no longer fun to cheer for.
Second: “The success of the trade does not depend on how Sosa plays for the Orioles this season. . . . Moving Sosa is the right thing now and forever. He walked out on his teammates. End of story.”
I would only qualify that statement in this way: He walked out on his teammates, and never showed contrition. End of story.Here’s what I wrote back in October:
I want Sosa disciplined. And I have no idea what I want with regard to Sosa being in a Cubs uniform next year. I used to think I’d always want him back, overpaid or not (the Trib Co. can afford it). This latest episode, though, where he walked out on his team and then lied about it is quite despicable. Show some contrition, Sammy. I’ll cheer for you again. If not, thanks, and goodbye.
Third: “[T]hat it came to this is one of the strangest and saddest stories in Chicago sports history.”
Sosa—the guy who had all the fun next to the dreary Mark McGwire during The Great Home Run Race of ‘98—was the king of post-23 Chicago. And it’s come to this. Booed in his last season (and not because of performance issues), and then gifted to Baltimore with nary a cry from the Wrigley faithful.
Chicago has had a long string of mega-stars. Walter Payton. Michael Jordan. Sammy Sosa. It’s without one for the first time since 1975.
The New York Yankees announced the signing of 32-year-old minor league veteran infielder Russ Johnson, who played for the Iowa Cubs last year, and who I have suggested would have more appropriately filled the Neifi Perez or Jose Macias role on the Cubs this year.
The Cubs have their catcher for the next three seasons. They avoided arbitration with Michael Barrrett by signing him to a 3-year, $12M contract, reports the AP. They also avoided arbitration with Corey Patterson and Kyle Farnsworth by signing them both to 1-year deals. Patterson’s contract is for $2.8M, a big raise from last year’s $480K, when he wasn’t eligible for arbitration. And demonstrating the strange nature of baseball contracts, Farnsworth received a half-a-million dollar raise to $1.975M, despite posting a 96 ERA+ last year (his 4th below average ERA in 6 major league seasons).
The Cubs also made a nice no-risk, potential big reward signing of Scott Williamson. Williamson, who had elbow surgery in October, received a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training.
UPDATE (9:40pm): Regarding Williamson, it’s unclear what the invitation to spring training is for. As Dan Szymborski writes at Baseball Think Factory, “still injured and it’s unlikely that he’ll step on a field this season. The Cubs are just throwing a little bit of money his way to get first in line to supervise his recovery and try to sign him for 2006. After all, Williamson was a really good pitcher.”
And the Boston Herald reportedDr. Tim Kremchek as saying after the surgery, “‘I couldn’t believe what I saw,'’ said Kremchek, who is the Cincinnati Reds team physician. ‘It looked like a grenade had gone off in there. The damage was far worse that the MRIs or any examination alluded to.’” This was also his second Tommy John surgery. He had one in 2001 as well. Still, Williamson was expected to “begin throwing off a mound in six months and be ready to return to action in 9-10 months.” 10 months would put him at ready to go in August.
The AP reports the Cubs signed Todd Hollandsworth to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration. The salary is unknown as of now. MLB.com quotes Hollandsworth as saying about possibly playing full-time in 2005: “I’m hoping and praying that’s the way this plays out. I’m also not going to fool myself and say, ‘This is the way it’s going to be.’ My mindset is I’m going to get every opportunity in the world to play for the Cubs.”
Hollandsworth had an OPS 17% above league average last year in 167 plate appearances for the Cubs. He missed the final three months of the season with a stress fracture in his right leg. Hollandsworth has a career OPS .5% above league average.
UPDATE (10:10pm): Hollandsworth’s contract is for $900,000, and it could rise to $1.7M if incentives are met.
The AP reports that the San Francisco Giants and Moises Alou have preliminarily agreed to a two-year contract for $13.25M. Because the Cubs did not offer Alou arbitration, the Giants will not owe the Cubs a draft pick for signing Alou.
Meanwhile, the AP also reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers and J.D. Drew have reached a preliminary 5-year, $55M agreement, taking a potential leftfielder for the Cubs (or rightfielder if the Cubs trade Sammy Sosa) off the market. As things stand now, Jason DuBois, David Kelton, and Todd Hollandsworth will compete for time in leftfield for the Cubs in 2005.
Unsurprisingly, the Chicago Cubs re-signed Jose Macias to a one-year contract, reports the Chicago Tribune. Terms were undisclosed. Macias, who will be 33 next season, has a lifetime OPS 13% below league average. The past two seasons he has been 16% and 24.5% below average.
The St. Louis Cardinals traded for Oakland A’s pitcher Mark Mulder, according to The Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal. They certainly gave up some value in return, sending Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and 2003 1st round draft pick catcher Daric Barton to the A’s. Mulder was an excellent pitcher from 2001 through the middle of last season. He then pulled a Matt Clement, disappearing down the stretch. 12-2 at the All-Star break, Mulder went 5-6 with a 6.13 ERA after the break.
It’s always disappointing when the rival acquires a big gun. Cubs blog 1060west writes, “Mulder is an ace. This was a great trade by Walt Jocketty.”
Cardinals fans are certainly excited. Cardinals blog All in the Cards goes so far as to state, “MLB’s 2004 Executive of the Year has made the deal that will likely keep his Cardinals at or near the top of the National League.” All in the Cards ignores, however, Mulder’s second half problems last year.
Still, if Mulder is healthy, one of the great things about him is that he’s just as tough on righthanders as he is lefthanders. His three-year split totals have him allowing an OPS against righties (.700) almost identical to what he allows against lefties (.693), meaning the Cubs’ big guns – Ramirez, Sosa (?), Lee, and Garciaparra, all righties – won’t have as much of an advantage against him as they would a normal lefty.
As noted by the Cubs Pundit, the Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal reports that “the Milwaukee Brewers have traded All-Star closer Dan Kolb to the Braves for Jose Capellan, the team’s top pitching prospect.” Jim Hendry had been interested in Kolb.
The Cubs Pundit asks, “Would the Cubs have traded their #1 pitching prospect for Danny Kolb?” The answer is most certainly no. The Pundit (apparently) views that as a bad thing. I think that to be an excellent thing. It’s too common for a previously little known relief pitcher to have a breakout year as a closer. Kolb himself is an example. So is Joe Borowski, who almost didn’t even make the team in 2003. The Cubs have enough in-house candidates to be the closer without trading a top starting pitching prospect for a very good but limited pitcher like Kolb. (The Cubs’ ace reliever – LaTroy Hawkins – finished with a VORP 75% higher than Kolb’s. That was due in part to Hawkins’ higher usage, but also in part to Hawkins’ better rate stats.) I know championship teams almost always have top notch closers (or ace relievers), but unlike most Cubs fans, I still believe Hawkins can be that guy.
The Cubs have decided to decline arbitration to Paul Bako, and sign another one of Greg Maddux’s personal catchers, Henry Blanco. The Cubs signed Blanco to a two-year deal, financial terms unspecified.
A two-year deal for a guy who’s who had .184 and .216 EqA’s the past two seasons seems a bit lengthy, no matter the financial terms. Paul Bako hits about the same. If Baseball Prospectus’s fielding statistics are to be believed, however, Blanco does appear to be the better defensive catcher. For his career, Blanco has been 14 runs per 100 games better than an average catcher. Bako has been -2, a difference of almost one win in a season if you figure either of them would catch about 50 games as the backup catcher (a high estimate).
The Cubs have their double-play combination set for next year. They signed Nomar Garciaparra to a one-year, $8M plus incentives deal, and Todd Walker to a one-year, $2.5M deal. A second year for Walker could become vested if he has a certain number of plate appearances in 2005.
This has the potential of being one of the best offensive double-play combinations in 2005. Garciaparra will have to stay healthy and Dusty Baker would have to resist the urge to “inject” the “energy” of Neifi Perez. Pretty big ifs, but right now things look good.
It’s hard to get more conflicting than this. Here’sBaseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan on the Cubs’ signing of Glendon Rusch to a two-year deal (sub. for BP link req’d):
A signing I like a lot more [than the Mets’ signing of Kris Benson] is the Cubs locking up Glendon Rusch for two years.
Rusch has become devastating to baserunners, the new Terry Mulholland. He’s allowed three stolen bases in 18 attempts over the last three seasons. I think he can be a mid-level left-hander for the next couple of seasons, on par with Al Leiter and maybe approaching the better years of David Wells and Jamie Moyer.
Remember how Rusch signed that $7.3 million two-year contract in February of 2002 with the Brewers? He went on to compile a cumulative -35 RSAA in the next two years, which means that the Brewers essentially got nothing for their money. That was one gamble that really didn’t work. . . . . Glendon Rusch has always been one of the poster boys for high line drive rates, and 2004 was no different. The big improvement he made was in his walk rate, which plummeted to 2.3 a game, vs. 3.3 the previous two years. He also managed to keep his home run rate under control, which was quite a feat considering he pitched in one of the best home run parks in 2004.
As you know from the salary chart, a $2 million signing is appropriate for a 4.25 ERA given 200 innings pitched. Based on his history, I don’t believe that Rusch will match either figure in either year of his contract. A smaller gamble by the Cubs, but one just as unlikely to pay off, in my opinion.
Sheehan’s prediction of Moyer-level performance seems quite high to me. Moyer has had 5 seasons as a full-time starter with an ERA greater than 25% better than the league average. Rusch last year was at 31% greater than league average, but he did it in 130 innings, and that was much higher than his previous career best of 9% greater in 2000.
Assuming the Cubs use Rusch in a similar manner as last year, it’s unlikely Rusch will ever approach the innings necessary to match a Moyer-like or Wells-like performance, and if he did approach that number of innings as a full-time starter, I think the most we could expect would be league average performance. Which would be just fine for a 5th starter.
One minute the Chicago Tribune reports that Troy Percival is coming to visit Chicago, the next the Sporting News‘ Ken Rosenthal reports that Percival has signed with the Detroit Tigers for 2 years, $12 million. (Tip via reader Michael C.)
Now that the Tigers have vastly overpaid for a good but limited relief pitcher, Rosenthal speculates that they may try to trade Ugueth Urbina, whose option for next year they have already picked up for $4M. How long before we see the first rumor that the Cubs and Tigers are working on a trade that would send Urbina to Chicago?
The Pittsburgh Pirates re-signed Jose Mesa today to a one-year contract with an option for 2006, reports MLB.com. You have to admire Mesa’s loyalty. The Pirates were the only team before last season to offer Mesa a chance to be the closer. As a result, though Mesa could have declared himself a free agent this offseason, he never did, and re-signed with Pittsburgh. “I don’t care about the other opportunities. If Pittsburgh wants me to be here, I am willing to stay here,” said Mesa.
As I said, you have to admire that kind of loyalty. You also have to admire it because it means Jim Hendry can’t be tempted to make Mesa the Cubs’ closer.
As has been pointed out endlessly, one of the great failings of major league front offices is their signing of Proven Veterans—players who’ve proven for a number of years that they are not all that good—to million dollar contracts. Cubs GM Jim Hendry is no exception. Tom Goodwin (twice), Jose Macias, Paul Bako, Lenny Harris, Darren Lewis, Ron Coomer, Damon Buford, etc. And now Neifi Perez. Perez is safe. Dozens of minor leaguers would likely do better, but then again, they might not. We know what we’re going to get from Perez.
The 
It’s hard to get more conflicting than this. 